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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Darren Elkins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1352

Darren ElkinsvsMichihiro OmigawaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · Saturday, June 11, 2011Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDarren Elkins: WrestlervsMichihiro Omigawa: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Michihiro Omigawa wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michihiro Omigawa at -210 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michihiro Omigawa has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins

Red Corner

Michihiro Omigawa

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1499

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Michihiro OmigawaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Chad Mendes · Feb 11

vs Jason Young · Nov 11

vs Iuri Alcantara · Jan 12

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Aug 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricMichihiro Omigawa

3.40

Strikes / min

2.01

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

51%

Strike defense

64%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

1.19

56%

Takedown defense

49%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06Δ 1.11 — meaningful gap-1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren ElkinsMichihiro Omigawa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Elkins(10 fights)Michihiro Omigawa(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +147.9|Blue -147.9

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +188.0|Blue -188.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetMichihiro Omigawa

By target zone

26% acc · 90%

Head

40% acc · 78%

50% acc · 10%

Body

100% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

27% acc · 100%

Distance

46% acc · 98%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Elkins rounds

even

Michihiro Omigawa rounds

Round 1Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns1

Control0:05

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Michihiro Omigawa edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:28Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

78 / 288

Sig Strikes

65 / 141

24.3%

Sig Str %

46%

79 / 289

Total Strikes

77 / 158

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 2

25%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michihiro Omigawa	19 / 44	19 / 44	0 / 0
1	Darren Elkins	34 / 106	35 / 107	1 / 2
2	Michihiro Omigawa	25 / 55	26 / 56	0 / 1
2	Darren Elkins	37 / 122	37 / 122	0 / 2
3	Michihiro Omigawa	21 / 42	32 / 58	1 / 1
3	Darren Elkins	7 / 60	7 / 60	0 / 0

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30

Michihiro Omigawa

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5