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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Darren Elkins won · SUB R2

Elo1499

Elo1502

Darren ElkinsvsMichael JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Stephens vs. Choi · Sunday, January 14, 2018St. Louis, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:22

Style matchupDarren Elkins: WrestlervsMichael Johnson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Darren Elkins wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Elkins at +175 American odds

+$175 profit

$275 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Johnson has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Johnson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins

Red Corner

Michael Johnson

Blue Corner

+175

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-210

(68%)

1499

Elo

1502

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Michael Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

KOvs Drew Dober · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricMichael Johnson

3.40

Strikes / min

4.27

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

51%

Strike defense

58%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

0.57

56%

Takedown defense

81%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren ElkinsMichael Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Elkins(10 fights)Michael Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -3.0|Blue +3.0

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -15.0|Blue +15.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetMichael Johnson

By target zone

23% acc · 72%

Head

39% acc · 64%

71% acc · 28%

Body

69% acc · 20%

Leg

64% acc · 16%

By position

28% acc · 94%

Distance

46% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

50% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Elkins rounds

even

Michael Johnson rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

43Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:01

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 64

Sig Strikes

45 / 98

37.5%

Sig Str %

47.5%

54 / 108

Total Strikes

46 / 99

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael Johnson	43 / 94	43 / 94	0 / 0	0
1	Darren Elkins	15 / 58	15 / 58	0 / 3	0
2	Michael Johnson	2 / 4	3 / 5	0 / 0	0
2	Darren Elkins	3 / 6	39 / 50	1 / 1	1

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32