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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Darren Elkins won · S-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1490

Darren ElkinsvsLucas MartinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2 · Saturday, October 25, 2014Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDarren Elkins: WrestlervsLucas Martins: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Lucas Martins wins(56.7%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lucas Martins at +200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lucas Martins has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Lucas Martins (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins

Red Corner

Lucas Martins

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1499

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Lucas Martins

oldest →

KOvs Jeremy Larsen · May 13

SUBvs Junior Hernandez · Sep 13

KOvs Alex White · Jul 14

KOvs Mirsad Bektic · May 15

DECvs Rob Whiteford · Apr 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricLucas Martins

3.40

Strikes / min

2.87

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

4.14

51%

Strike defense

60%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

0.00

56%

Takedown defense

76%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap-1.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren ElkinsLucas Martins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Elkins(10 fights)Lucas Martins(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.0|Blue -9.0

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +172.0|Blue -172.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetLucas Martins

By target zone

22% acc · 53%

Head

23% acc · 62%

47% acc · 36%

Body

86% acc · 23%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

80% acc · 15%

By position

21% acc · 45%

Distance

27% acc · 73%

48% acc · 53%

Clinch

64% acc · 27%

50% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Elkins rounds

even

Lucas Martins rounds

Round 1Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns1

Control1:23

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control3:16

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 3Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control3:24

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 154

Sig Strikes

26 / 82

30%

Sig Str %

33.3%

133 / 251

Total Strikes

41 / 97

1 / 14

TDs

0 / 0

5.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:03

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lucas Martins	9 / 32	11 / 34	0 / 0	0
1	Darren Elkins	23 / 75	34 / 88	1 / 6	0
2	Lucas Martins	9 / 32	17 / 40	0 / 0	1
2	Darren Elkins	14 / 45	61 / 93	0 / 1	0
3	Lucas Martins	8 / 18	13 / 23	0 / 0	0
3	Darren Elkins	10 / 34	38 / 70	0 / 7	0

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30

Lucas Martins

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7