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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Julian Erosa won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1499

Elo1495

Darren ElkinsvsJulian ErosaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Saturday, April 12, 2025Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Julian Erosa won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:15

Style matchupDarren Elkins: WrestlervsJulian Erosa: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Julian Erosa wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Julian Erosa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julian Erosa at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Julian Erosa (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins

Red Corner

Julian Erosa

Blue Corner

+230

(30%)

Vegas Odds

-280

(74%)

1499

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'10"

Height

6'1"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren ElkinsW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 21

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

latest

Julian ErosaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Fernando Padilla · Apr 23

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Mar 24

SUBvs Christian Rodriguez · Jul 24

vs Melquizael Costa · May 25

KOvs Lerryan Douglas · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricJulian Erosa

3.40

Strikes / min

6.18

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

6.31

51%

Strike defense

48%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

1.73

56%

Takedown defense

61%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren ElkinsJulian Erosa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Elkins(10 fights)Julian Erosa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.8|Blue -4.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -98.0|Blue +98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetJulian Erosa

By target zone

39% acc · 85%

Head

73% acc · 96%

50% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

41% acc · 92%

Distance

56% acc · 41%

Clinch

92% acc · 20%

50% acc · 8%

Ground

95% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Elkins rounds

even

Julian Erosa rounds

Round 1Julian Erosa edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:48

54Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:48Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 31

Sig Strikes

54 / 73

41%

Sig Str %

73%

18 / 45

Total Strikes

69 / 92

1 / 7

TDs

0 / 0

14%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

0:48

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julian Erosa	54 / 73	69 / 92	0 / 0	0
1	Darren Elkins	13 / 31	18 / 45	1 / 7	0

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30

Julian Erosa

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18