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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jonathan Pearce won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1494

Darren ElkinsvsJonathan PearceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · Saturday, December 3, 2022Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Jonathan Pearce won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDarren Elkins: WrestlervsJonathan Pearce: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Pearce wins(87.2%)

Actual result: Jonathan Pearce wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Pearce at -500 American odds

+$20 profit

$120 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jonathan Pearce enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Pearce (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins

Red Corner

Jonathan Pearce

Blue Corner

+400

(20%)

Vegas Odds

-500

(83%)

1499

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'10"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins

oldest →

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 21

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Jonathan PearceL3 streak

oldest →

vs Christian Rodriguez · Feb 22

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Jul 22

SUBvs Joanderson Brito · Nov 23

vs David Onama · Apr 24

SUBvs Pat Sabatini · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricJonathan Pearce

3.40

Strikes / min

5.12

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.32

51%

Strike defense

54%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

5.02

56%

Takedown defense

55%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06Δ 1.74 — meaningful gap+1.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren ElkinsJonathan Pearce

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Elkins(10 fights)Jonathan Pearce(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.6|Blue -5.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetJonathan Pearce

By target zone

27% acc · 82%

Head

43% acc · 73%

60% acc · 16%

Body

82% acc · 16%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

28% acc · 86%

Distance

42% acc · 60%

50% acc · 14%

Clinch

70% acc · 13%

Ground

70% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Elkins rounds

even

Jonathan Pearce rounds

Round 1Jonathan Pearce edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control0:28

30Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 2Jonathan Pearce edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control0:18

44Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:29Control

Round 3Jonathan Pearce edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:02

36Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 193

Sig Strikes

110 / 222

28%

Sig Str %

50%

67 / 203

Total Strikes

154 / 276

2 / 5

TDs

2 / 7

33.3%

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

3:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jonathan Pearce	30 / 64	35 / 70	1 / 1
1	Darren Elkins	11 / 57	14 / 60	1 / 2
2	Jonathan Pearce	44 / 68	74 / 106	0 / 3
2	Darren Elkins	15 / 47	22 / 54	1 / 2
3	Jonathan Pearce	36 / 90	45 / 100	1 / 3
3	Darren Elkins	31 / 89	31 / 89	0 / 1

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30

Jonathan Pearce

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights9