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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Jeremy Stephens won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1473

Darren ElkinsvsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · Saturday, January 25, 2014Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Jeremy Stephens won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDarren Elkins: WrestlervsJeremy Stephens: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jeremy Stephens wins(53.9%)

Actual result: Jeremy Stephens wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremy Stephens at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins

Red Corner

Jeremy Stephens

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1499

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricJeremy Stephens

3.40

Strikes / min

3.13

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

51%

Strike defense

57%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

1.10

56%

Takedown defense

61%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren ElkinsJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Elkins(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +26.9|Blue -26.9

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +73.0|Blue -73.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

11% acc · 67%

Head

29% acc · 65%

43% acc · 29%

Body

55% acc · 15%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

50% acc · 20%

By position

15% acc · 95%

Distance

33% acc · 95%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

Ground

67% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Elkins rounds

even

Jeremy Stephens rounds

Round 1Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:26

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 2Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:26

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:22

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 137

Sig Strikes

40 / 117

14.7%

Sig Str %

34%

26 / 142

Total Strikes

40 / 117

0 / 9

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:14

Ctrl Time

1:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jeremy Stephens	12 / 36	12 / 36	0 / 0	0
1	Darren Elkins	5 / 36	6 / 37	0 / 4	0
2	Jeremy Stephens	15 / 45	15 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Darren Elkins	9 / 56	13 / 60	0 / 4	0
3	Jeremy Stephens	13 / 36	13 / 36	1 / 1	0
3	Darren Elkins	7 / 45	7 / 45	0 / 1	4

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27