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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Darren Elkins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1355

Darren ElkinsvsHatsu HiokiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kampmann 2 · Wednesday, August 28, 2013Indianapolis, Indiana, USA

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDarren Elkins: WrestlervsHatsu Hioki: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Hatsu Hioki wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hatsu Hioki at -165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hatsu Hioki has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins

Red Corner

Hatsu Hioki

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1499

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Hatsu HiokiL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 12

vs Clay Guida · Jan 13

vs Ivan Menjivar · Mar 14

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 14

KOvs Dan Hooker · May 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricHatsu Hioki

3.40

Strikes / min

2.42

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.12

51%

Strike defense

65%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

2.55

56%

Takedown defense

54%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren ElkinsHatsu Hioki

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Elkins(10 fights)Hatsu Hioki(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +144.8|Blue -144.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetHatsu Hioki

By target zone

30% acc · 75%

Head

36% acc · 45%

50% acc · 25%

Body

55% acc · 52%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

24% acc · 52%

Distance

42% acc · 87%

50% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

59% acc · 35%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Elkins rounds

even

Hatsu Hioki rounds

Round 1Hatsu Hioki edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:34

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 2Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control2:15

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 3Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control4:11

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

48 / 144

Sig Strikes

31 / 69

33%

Sig Str %

39%

100 / 205

Total Strikes

73 / 114

2 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

66.7%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

7:00

Ctrl Time

1:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Hatsu Hioki	21 / 41	43 / 64	0 / 0
1	Darren Elkins	14 / 50	16 / 52	0 / 3
2	Hatsu Hioki	8 / 21	17 / 31	1 / 1
2	Darren Elkins	17 / 45	30 / 59	1 / 1
3	Hatsu Hioki	2 / 7	13 / 19	0 / 0
3	Darren Elkins	17 / 49	54 / 94	1 / 1

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30

Hatsu Hioki

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8