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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Hacran Dias won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1362

Darren ElkinsvsHacran DiasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · Saturday, December 20, 2014Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Hacran Dias won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDarren Elkins: WrestlervsHacran Dias: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Hacran Dias wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Hacran Dias wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hacran Dias at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Hacran Dias enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Hacran Dias has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins

Red Corner

Hacran Dias

Blue Corner

+210

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1499

Elo

1362

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Hacran DiasL3 streak

oldest →

vs Ricardo Lamas · Jun 14

vs Levan Makashvili · Jun 15

vs Cub Swanson · Apr 16

vs Andre Fili · Oct 16

vs Jared Gordon · Oct 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricHacran Dias

3.40

Strikes / min

2.08

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

51%

Strike defense

55%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

2.50

56%

Takedown defense

76%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap-1.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren ElkinsHacran Dias

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Elkins(10 fights)Hacran Dias(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.1|Blue -137.1

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetHacran Dias

By target zone

31% acc · 68%

Head

50% acc · 70%

62% acc · 22%

Body

75% acc · 10%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

27% acc · 51%

Distance

49% acc · 63%

70% acc · 38%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

67% acc · 11%

Ground

80% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Elkins rounds

even

Hacran Dias rounds

Round 1Hacran Dias edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:14

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:47Control

Round 2Hacran Dias edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:42

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:08Control

Round 3Hacran Dias edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:46

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:57Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 97

Sig Strikes

30 / 52

39.3%

Sig Str %

57%

77 / 140

Total Strikes

65 / 93

1 / 6

TDs

5 / 6

10%

TD %

83.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:42

Ctrl Time

7:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hacran Dias	12 / 22	22 / 32	1 / 2	0
1	Darren Elkins	12 / 26	22 / 38	1 / 5	0
2	Hacran Dias	6 / 11	25 / 35	2 / 2	0
2	Darren Elkins	14 / 30	26 / 43	0 / 1	0
3	Hacran Dias	12 / 19	18 / 26	2 / 2	0
3	Darren Elkins	11 / 41	29 / 59	0 / 0	1

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30

Hacran Dias

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights8