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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Darren Elkins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1364

Darren ElkinsvsGodofredo PepeyUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · Saturday, July 23, 2016Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Darren Elkins wins(71.3%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Elkins at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Darren Elkins has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins

Red Corner

Godofredo Pepey

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1499

Elo

1364

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Godofredo PepeyL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Dashon Johnson · Sep 14

SUBvs Andre Fili · Mar 15

SUBvs Mike de la Torre · Sep 16

vs Shane Burgos · Jul 17

KOvs Mirsad Bektic · Jan 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricGodofredo Pepey

3.40

Strikes / min

2.32

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

51%

Strike defense

47%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

0.37

56%

Takedown defense

35%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking-0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren ElkinsGodofredo Pepey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Elkins(10 fights)Godofredo Pepey(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.8|Blue -135.8

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -350.0|Blue +350.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetGodofredo Pepey

By target zone

59% acc · 97%

Head

50% acc · 90%

33% acc · 3%

Body

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

18% acc · 9%

Distance

25% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 15%

75% acc · 91%

Ground

68% acc · 65%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Elkins rounds

even

Godofredo Pepey rounds

Round 1Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control3:40

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

Round 2Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control3:44

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control4:22

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 57

Sig Strikes

20 / 38

63.3%

Sig Str %

56%

206 / 256

Total Strikes

67 / 99

5 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

88.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:46

Ctrl Time

1:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Godofredo Pepey	5 / 9	13 / 22	0 / 0	2
1	Darren Elkins	6 / 7	66 / 73	2 / 3	0
2	Godofredo Pepey	11 / 23	24 / 38	0 / 0	0
2	Darren Elkins	8 / 16	56 / 73	1 / 1	0
3	Godofredo Pepey	4 / 6	30 / 39	0 / 0	0
3	Darren Elkins	19 / 34	84 / 110	2 / 2	0

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30

Godofredo Pepey

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights11