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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Darren Elkins won · SUB

Elo1499

Elo1391

Darren ElkinsvsEduardo GaragorriUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · Saturday, November 7, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

SUB

Style matchupDarren Elkins: WrestlervsEduardo Garagorri: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Eduardo Garagorri wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Eduardo Garagorri at +185 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins

Red Corner

Eduardo Garagorri

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1499

Elo

1391

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'9"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Eduardo Garagorri

oldest →

SUBvs Ricardo Ramos · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricEduardo Garagorri

3.40

Strikes / min

3.42

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

2.36

51%

Strike defense

58%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

0.48

56%

Takedown defense

61%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking+1.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren ElkinsEduardo Garagorri

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Elkins(10 fights)Eduardo Garagorri(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +108.4|Blue -108.4

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -182.0|Blue +182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetEduardo Garagorri

By target zone

36% acc · 66%

Head

41% acc · 78%

77% acc · 31%

Body

89% acc · 22%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 56%

Distance

43% acc · 83%

80% acc · 38%

Clinch

75% acc · 8%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

60% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Elkins rounds

even

Eduardo Garagorri rounds

Round 1Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns5

Control4:06

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns2

Control2:40

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Eduardo Garagorri edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:48

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 72

Sig Strikes

36 / 78

44.7%

Sig Str %

50%

120 / 168

Total Strikes

48 / 90

7 / 21

TDs

0 / 0

27%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:34

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Eduardo Garagorri	5 / 8	9 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Darren Elkins	12 / 21	55 / 69	5 / 12	0
2	Eduardo Garagorri	18 / 40	26 / 48	0 / 0	0
2	Darren Elkins	13 / 33	41 / 64	2 / 5	0
3	Eduardo Garagorri	13 / 30	13 / 30	0 / 0	0
3	Darren Elkins	7 / 18	24 / 35	0 / 4	1

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30

Eduardo Garagorri

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights2