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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Darren Elkins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1489

Darren ElkinsvsDaniel PinedaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · Saturday, October 19, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDarren Elkins: WrestlervsDaniel Pineda: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Darren Elkins wins(64.0%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Elkins at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins

Red Corner

Daniel Pineda

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+142

(41%)

1499

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins

oldest →

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 21

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Daniel PinedaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Herbert Burns · Aug 20

KOvs Cub Swanson · Dec 20

SUBvs Tucker Lutz · Mar 23

vs Alex Caceres · Jun 23

vs Nathaniel Wood · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricDaniel Pineda

3.40

Strikes / min

2.85

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.26

51%

Strike defense

45%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

1.42

56%

Takedown defense

54%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren ElkinsDaniel Pineda

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Elkins(10 fights)Daniel Pineda(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.4|Blue -10.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +287.0|Blue -287.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetDaniel Pineda

By target zone

38% acc · 77%

Head

55% acc · 68%

90% acc · 23%

Body

70% acc · 23%

Leg

60% acc · 10%

By position

40% acc · 72%

Distance

46% acc · 55%

43% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

73% acc · 21%

Ground

87% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Elkins rounds

even

Daniel Pineda rounds

Round 1Daniel Pineda edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:07

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:07Control

Round 2Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control2:24

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control2:02

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:50Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 88

Sig Strikes

31 / 53

42.7%

Sig Str %

59.3%

102 / 170

Total Strikes

61 / 85

3 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:33

Ctrl Time

3:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Pineda	13 / 15	27 / 30	0 / 0	2
1	Darren Elkins	3 / 8	23 / 35	1 / 2	0
2	Daniel Pineda	12 / 24	17 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Darren Elkins	19 / 47	39 / 72	2 / 4	0
3	Daniel Pineda	6 / 14	17 / 26	0 / 0	0
3	Darren Elkins	17 / 33	40 / 63	0 / 6	0

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30

Daniel Pineda

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13