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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Darren Elkins won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1495

Darren ElkinsvsChas SkellyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz · Saturday, March 5, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDarren Elkins: WrestlervsChas Skelly: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Darren Elkins wins(51.7%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Elkins at +155 American odds

+$155 profit

$255 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Darren Elkins has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins

Red Corner

Chas Skelly

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-175

(64%)

1499

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Chas SkellyW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chris Gruetzemacher · Feb 17

KOvs Jason Knight · May 17

vs Bobby Moffett · Nov 18

vs Jordan Griffin · Sep 19

KOvs Mark Striegl · Feb 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricChas Skelly

3.40

Strikes / min

2.01

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

51%

Strike defense

49%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

1.74

56%

Takedown defense

39%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

2.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06Δ 1.26 — meaningful gap-1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren ElkinsChas Skelly

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Elkins(10 fights)Chas Skelly(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.3|Blue -4.3

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetChas Skelly

By target zone

62% acc · 70%

Head

35% acc · 85%

90% acc · 25%

Body

57% acc · 15%

83% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

37% acc · 23%

Distance

32% acc · 74%

89% acc · 31%

Clinch

63% acc · 19%

92% acc · 46%

Ground

100% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Elkins rounds

even

Chas Skelly rounds

Round 1Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control1:55

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 2Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns2

Control4:21

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns4

Control2:27

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:29Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

104 / 153

Sig Strikes

27 / 72

68%

Sig Str %

32.7%

193 / 255

Total Strikes

32 / 83

7 / 11

TDs

0 / 1

60%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

8:43

Ctrl Time

1:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chas Skelly	22 / 42	22 / 44	0 / 0	2
1	Darren Elkins	36 / 59	73 / 98	1 / 2	0
2	Chas Skelly	3 / 8	7 / 15	0 / 0	0
2	Darren Elkins	40 / 49	75 / 93	2 / 4	0
3	Chas Skelly	2 / 22	3 / 24	0 / 1	0
3	Darren Elkins	28 / 45	45 / 64	4 / 5	0

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30

Chas Skelly

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12