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FIGHTDETECTIVE
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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Charles Oliveira won · SUB R1
Elo1499
Darren Elkins
Elo1521

Darren ElkinsvsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · Sunday, August 1, 2010San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Charles Oliveira won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:41

Style matchupDarren Elkins: WrestlervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Darren Elkins wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Charles Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Elkins at +200 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins
Red Corner
VS
Charles Oliveira
Blue Corner
+200
(33%)
Vegas Odds
-240
(71%)
1499
Elo
1521
42
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins
oldest →
W
vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22
L
vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22
W
SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23
W
vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24
L
KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25
latest
Charles OliveiraW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24
W
vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24
L
KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25
W
SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25
W
vs Max Holloway · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricCharles Oliveira
3.40
Strikes / min
3.23
3.34
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
51%
Strike defense
48%
2.87
TDs / 15 min
2.29
56%
Takedown defense
54%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
2.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1500Strikes0.0 vs —Takedowns1.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Darren ElkinsCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Darren Elkins(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -21.8|Blue +21.8
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
2
67% acc · 67%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 33%

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
100% acc · 33%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
2
67% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Darren Elkins rounds
1
even
0
Charles Oliveira rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns1
Control0:27
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
0 / 4
Sig Strikes
3 / 4
0%
Sig Str %
75%
0 / 4
Total Strikes
3 / 4
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
0
0:27
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Charles Oliveira3 / 43 / 40 / 02
1Darren Elkins0 / 40 / 41 / 10

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights30

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights36