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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Alexander Volkanovski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1499

Elo1521

Darren ElkinsvsAlexander VolkanovskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · Saturday, July 14, 2018Boise, Idaho, USA

Official fight result

Alexander Volkanovski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDarren Elkins: WrestlervsAlexander Volkanovski: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Alexander Volkanovski wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Alexander Volkanovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexander Volkanovski at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Darren Elkins

Red Corner

Alexander Volkanovski

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-220

(69%)

1499

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Alexander VolkanovskiW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 23

KOvs Islam Makhachev · Oct 23

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Apr 25

vs Diego Lopes · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darren ElkinsMetricAlexander Volkanovski

3.40

Strikes / min

5.99

3.34

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

51%

Strike defense

58%

2.87

TDs / 15 min

1.63

56%

Takedown defense

68%

1.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06Δ 2.62 — meaningful gap+2.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darren ElkinsAlexander Volkanovski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darren Elkins(10 fights)Alexander Volkanovski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -21.2|Blue +21.2

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +27.0|Blue -27.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darren ElkinsTargetAlexander Volkanovski

By target zone

45% acc · 80%

Head

64% acc · 76%

63% acc · 18%

Body

85% acc · 11%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

45% acc · 82%

Distance

69% acc · 81%

63% acc · 18%

Clinch

72% acc · 18%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darren Elkins rounds

even

Alexander Volkanovski rounds

Round 1Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:46

Knockdowns0

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

2Knockdowns

Round 2Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Round 3Alexander Volkanovski edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:13

42Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

82 / 172

Sig Strikes

100 / 144

47.7%

Sig Str %

69%

93 / 184

Total Strikes

103 / 147

1 / 6

TDs

2 / 12

16.5%

TD %

11%

Sub Att

Rev

0:59

Ctrl Time

3:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexander Volkanovski	32 / 43	32 / 43	0 / 2	3
1	Darren Elkins	22 / 44	24 / 47	1 / 3	0
2	Alexander Volkanovski	26 / 40	27 / 41	0 / 4	0
2	Darren Elkins	32 / 64	35 / 67	0 / 0	0
3	Alexander Volkanovski	42 / 61	44 / 63	2 / 6	0
3	Darren Elkins	28 / 64	34 / 70	0 / 3	0

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30

Alexander Volkanovski

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights18