Flyweight

3 Rounds

Willie Gates won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1355

Elo1357

Darrell MontaguevsWillie GatesUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · Sunday, July 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Willie Gates won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:36

Model Prediction: Willie Gates wins(74.5%)

Actual result: Willie Gates wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Willie Gates at -130 American odds

+$77 profit

$177 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Willie Gates enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Willie Gates is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Darrell Montague has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Darrell Montague has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Willie Gates has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Darrell Montague (53.5%).
Willie Gates has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Darrell Montague

Red Corner

Willie Gates

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1355

Elo

1357

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darrell MontagueL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Dodson · Oct 13

vs Kyoji Horiguchi · May 14

latest

Willie GatesL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs John Moraga · Dec 14

KOvs Dustin Ortiz · Aug 15

SUBvs Ulka Sasaki · May 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darrell MontagueMetricWillie Gates

1.92

Strikes / min

1.80

5.38

Strikes absorbed / min

4.28

52%

Strike defense

38%

0.72

TDs / 15 min

0.00

33%

Takedown defense

67%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-3.46evenly matched on net striking-2.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darrell MontagueWillie Gates

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darrell Montague(3 fights)Willie Gates(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +217.0|Blue -217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darrell MontagueTargetWillie Gates

By target zone

0% acc

Head

54% acc · 79%

100% acc · 50%

Body

75% acc · 16%

100% acc · 50%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

31% acc · 100%

Distance

41% acc · 47%

Clinch

Ground

91% acc · 53%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darrell Montague rounds

even

Willie Gates rounds

Round 1Willie Gates edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

4 / 13

Sig Strikes

19 / 33

30%

Sig Str %

57%

4 / 13

Total Strikes

21 / 35

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Willie Gates	19 / 33	21 / 35	0 / 0	0
1	Darrell Montague	4 / 13	4 / 13	0 / 1	0

Darrell Montague

StanceSouthpaw

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3

Willie Gates

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4