Lightweight

3 Rounds

Daron Cruickshank won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1356

Elo1353

Daron CruickshankvsMike RioUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson · Saturday, January 25, 2014Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Daron Cruickshank won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:56

Style matchupDaron Cruickshank: WrestlervsMike Rio: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Daron Cruickshank wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Daron Cruickshank wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daron Cruickshank at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daron Cruickshank enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mike Rio threatens submissions; Daron Cruickshank has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Daron Cruickshank has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daron Cruickshank (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Daron Cruickshank

Red Corner

Mike Rio

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1356

Elo

1353

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daron CruickshankL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 14

vs Anthony Njokuani · Oct 14

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Mar 15

SUBvs James Krause · Jul 15

SUBvs Paul Felder · Jan 16

latest

Mike RioL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs John Cofer · Dec 12

SUBvs Francisco Trinaldo · May 13

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daron CruickshankMetricMike Rio

2.88

Strikes / min

1.68

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

57%

Strike defense

53%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

2.58

60%

Takedown defense

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daron CruickshankMike Rio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daron Cruickshank(10 fights)Mike Rio(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.3|Blue -3.3

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daron CruickshankTargetMike Rio

By target zone

37% acc · 70%

Head

22% acc · 70%

70% acc · 15%

Body

25% acc · 10%

88% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

34% acc · 52%

Distance

22% acc · 60%

66% acc · 46%

Clinch

36% acc · 40%

50% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daron Cruickshank rounds

even

Mike Rio rounds

Round 1Daron Cruickshank edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:18

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Daron Cruickshank edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns1

Control1:09

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 104

Sig Strikes

10 / 38

43.5%

Sig Str %

21%

51 / 111

Total Strikes

14 / 42

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:27

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Rio	9 / 27	9 / 27	0 / 1	0
1	Daron Cruickshank	18 / 47	23 / 54	0 / 0	1
2	Mike Rio	1 / 11	5 / 15	0 / 1	1
2	Daron Cruickshank	28 / 57	28 / 57	1 / 1	0

Daron Cruickshank

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Mike Rio

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4