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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jorge Masvidal won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1456

Daron CruickshankvsJorge MasvidalUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown · Saturday, July 26, 2014San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Jorge Masvidal won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDaron Cruickshank: WrestlervsJorge Masvidal: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Jorge Masvidal wins(69.9%)

Actual result: Jorge Masvidal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jorge Masvidal at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daron Cruickshank enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jorge Masvidal enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Daron Cruickshank (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Daron Cruickshank

Red Corner

Jorge Masvidal

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-235

(70%)

1356

Elo

1456

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daron CruickshankL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Erik Koch · May 14

vs Anthony Njokuani · Oct 14

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Mar 15

SUBvs James Krause · Jul 15

SUBvs Paul Felder · Jan 16

latest

Jorge MasvidalL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nate Diaz · Nov 19

vs Kamaru Usman · Jul 20

KOvs Kamaru Usman · Apr 21

vs Colby Covington · Mar 22

vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daron CruickshankMetricJorge Masvidal

2.88

Strikes / min

4.05

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

57%

Strike defense

64%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

1.38

60%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10Δ 1.10 — meaningful gap+1.00

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daron CruickshankJorge Masvidal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daron Cruickshank(10 fights)Jorge Masvidal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -100.2|Blue +100.2

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daron CruickshankTargetJorge Masvidal

By target zone

10% acc · 32%

Head

51% acc · 69%

44% acc · 37%

Body

85% acc · 22%

100% acc · 32%

Leg

50% acc · 10%

By position

22% acc · 89%

Distance

46% acc · 45%

0% acc

Clinch

89% acc · 16%

33% acc · 11%

Ground

61% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daron Cruickshank rounds

even

Jorge Masvidal rounds

Round 1Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:07Control

0Knockdowns

Round 2Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:14

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:07Control

Round 3Jorge Masvidal edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:10

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 83

Sig Strikes

51 / 92

21%

Sig Str %

56.7%

23 / 87

Total Strikes

99 / 150

2 / 3

TDs

2 / 4

66.7%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:25

Ctrl Time

7:29

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jorge Masvidal	23 / 47	23 / 47	1 / 1	0
1	Daron Cruickshank	14 / 51	14 / 51	0 / 1	0
2	Jorge Masvidal	17 / 26	44 / 56	1 / 1	2
2	Daron Cruickshank	3 / 11	6 / 14	1 / 1	0
3	Jorge Masvidal	11 / 19	32 / 47	0 / 2	0
3	Daron Cruickshank	2 / 21	3 / 22	1 / 1	1

Daron Cruickshank

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Jorge Masvidal

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights22