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Lightweight
3 Rounds
James Krause won · SUB R1
Elo1356
Elo1493
James Krause

Daron CruickshankvsJames KrauseUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · Saturday, July 25, 2015Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

James Krause won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:27

Style matchupDaron Cruickshank: WrestlervsJames Krause: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: James Krause wins(51.7%)

Actual result: James Krause wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

James Krause at +170 American odds

+$170 profit

$270 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Daron Cruickshank (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Daron Cruickshank
Red Corner
VS
James Krause
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1356
Elo
1493
41
Age
40
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
6'2"
182.88 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daron CruickshankL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Erik Koch · May 14
L
vs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 14
W
vs Anthony Njokuani · Oct 14
L
SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Mar 15
L
SUBvs Paul Felder · Jan 16
latest
James Krause
oldest →
W
vs Alex White · Jan 18
W
KOvs Warlley Alves · Aug 18
W
KOvs Sergio Moraes · Nov 19
L
vs Trevin Giles · Feb 20
W
vs Claudio Silva · Oct 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daron CruickshankMetricJames Krause
2.88
Strikes / min
4.79
2.98
Strikes absorbed / min
4.11
57%
Strike defense
61%
2.04
TDs / 15 min
0.96
60%
Takedown defense
59%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1527 vs 1483Strikes31.2 vs 57.0Takedowns1.4 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.18 vs 0.20Form-0.0 vs -0.5
Daron CruickshankJames Krause

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Daron Cruickshank(10 fights)James Krause(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -136.9|Blue +136.9
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -14.0|Blue +14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daron CruickshankTargetJames Krause

By target zone

3
20% acc · 50%
Head
5
50% acc · 50%
3
75% acc · 50%
Body
3
100% acc · 30%
0
Leg
2
100% acc · 20%

By position

5
28% acc · 83%
Distance
9
64% acc · 90%
1
100% acc · 17%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 10%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Daron Cruickshank rounds
0
even
1
James Krause rounds
Round 1James Krause edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:03
10Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:10Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
6 / 19
Sig Strikes
10 / 15
31%
Sig Str %
66%
6 / 19
Total Strikes
10 / 15
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:10

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1James Krause10 / 1510 / 151 / 11
1Daron Cruickshank6 / 196 / 190 / 00

Daron Cruickshank

StanceSwitch
Height68.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights12

James Krause

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights13