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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Daron Cruickshank won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1356

Elo1490

Daron CruickshankvsHenry MartinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz · Saturday, December 8, 2012Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Daron Cruickshank won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:57

Model Prediction: Daron Cruickshank wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Daron Cruickshank wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daron Cruickshank at -170 American odds

+$59 profit

$159 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daron Cruickshank enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daron Cruickshank is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Henry Martinez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Henry Martinez has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daron Cruickshank (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Daron Cruickshank

Red Corner

Henry Martinez

Blue Corner

-170

(63%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1356

Elo

1490

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'7"

182.88 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daron CruickshankL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 14

vs Anthony Njokuani · Oct 14

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Mar 15

SUBvs James Krause · Jul 15

SUBvs Paul Felder · Jan 16

latest

Henry Martinez

oldest →

vs Matthew Riddle · Feb 12

vs Bernardo Magalhaes · Jun 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daron CruickshankMetricHenry Martinez

2.88

Strikes / min

2.79

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

4.01

57%

Strike defense

60%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

0.00

60%

Takedown defense

80%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap-1.22

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daron CruickshankHenry Martinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daron Cruickshank(10 fights)Henry Martinez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -134.1|Blue +134.1

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daron CruickshankTargetHenry Martinez

By target zone

46% acc · 54%

Head

17% acc · 76%

78% acc · 40%

Body

25% acc · 5%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

80% acc · 19%

By position

53% acc · 58%

Distance

20% acc · 81%

65% acc · 42%

Clinch

27% acc · 19%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daron Cruickshank rounds

even

Henry Martinez rounds

Round 1Daron Cruickshank edged it

Sig. strikes42

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:46Control

Round 2Daron Cruickshank edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 91

Sig Strikes

21 / 102

52.5%

Sig Str %

20%

55 / 95

Total Strikes

29 / 123

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

2:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Henry Martinez	11 / 58	19 / 79	0 / 2
1	Daron Cruickshank	42 / 69	45 / 73	0 / 0
2	Henry Martinez	10 / 44	10 / 44	0 / 0
2	Daron Cruickshank	10 / 22	10 / 22	0 / 0

Daron Cruickshank

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Henry Martinez

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3