Lightweight

3 Rounds

Daron Cruickshank won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1490

Daron CruickshankvsChris TickleUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · Friday, June 1, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daron Cruickshank won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDaron Cruickshank: WrestlervsChris Tickle: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Chris Tickle wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Daron Cruickshank wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Tickle at +164 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daron Cruickshank enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daron Cruickshank has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Daron Cruickshank has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daron Cruickshank (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Daron Cruickshank

Red Corner

Chris Tickle

Blue Corner

-174

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+164

(38%)

1356

Elo

1490

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

178 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daron CruickshankL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 14

vs Anthony Njokuani · Oct 14

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Mar 15

SUBvs James Krause · Jul 15

SUBvs Paul Felder · Jan 16

latest

Chris TickleNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daron CruickshankMetricChris Tickle

2.88

Strikes / min

1.07

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

1.13

57%

Strike defense

43%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

1.00

60%

Takedown defense

20%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10evenly matched on net striking-0.06

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daron Cruickshank(10 fights)Chris Tickle(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -134.1|Blue +134.1

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daron CruickshankTargetChris Tickle

By target zone

52% acc · 65%

Head

32% acc · 69%

60% acc · 18%

Body

75% acc · 19%

75% acc · 18%

Leg

100% acc · 13%

By position

38% acc · 47%

Distance

32% acc · 69%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 53%

Ground

80% acc · 25%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daron Cruickshank rounds

even

Chris Tickle rounds

Round 1Daron Cruickshank edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns3

Control4:04

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Round 2Chris Tickle edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:43

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:36Control

Round 3Daron Cruickshank edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:30

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 30

Sig Strikes

16 / 40

56.7%

Sig Str %

40%

59 / 84

Total Strikes

52 / 82

4 / 5

TDs

1 / 4

75%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

8:17

Ctrl Time

5:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Tickle	6 / 12	11 / 17	0 / 1	1
1	Daron Cruickshank	7 / 13	22 / 32	3 / 3	0
2	Chris Tickle	5 / 14	28 / 42	0 / 0	1
2	Daron Cruickshank	4 / 7	11 / 16	0 / 0	0
3	Chris Tickle	5 / 14	13 / 23	1 / 3	0
3	Daron Cruickshank	6 / 10	26 / 36	1 / 2	0

Daron Cruickshank

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Chris Tickle

Stance—

Height69.0"

Reach—

Fights1