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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Beneil Dariush won · SUB R2

Elo1356

Elo1480

Daron CruickshankvsBeneil DariushUFC Prediction Result

UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos · Saturday, March 14, 2015Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Beneil Dariush won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:38

Style matchupDaron Cruickshank: WrestlervsBeneil Dariush: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Beneil Dariush wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Beneil Dariush wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Beneil Dariush at +110 American odds

+$110 profit

$210 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daron Cruickshank is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Beneil Dariush has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Beneil Dariush has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daron Cruickshank (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Daron Cruickshank

Red Corner

Beneil Dariush

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1356

Elo

1480

Age

Switch

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daron CruickshankL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Erik Koch · May 14

vs Jorge Masvidal · Jul 14

vs Anthony Njokuani · Oct 14

SUBvs James Krause · Jul 15

SUBvs Paul Felder · Jan 16

latest

Beneil DariushL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charles Oliveira · Jun 23

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Dec 23

vs Renato Moicano · Jun 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daron CruickshankMetricBeneil Dariush

2.88

Strikes / min

3.74

2.98

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

57%

Strike defense

57%

2.04

TDs / 15 min

2.21

60%

Takedown defense

82%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.10Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap+1.11

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daron CruickshankBeneil Dariush

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daron Cruickshank(10 fights)Beneil Dariush(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -124.3|Blue +124.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daron CruickshankTargetBeneil Dariush

By target zone

32% acc · 59%

Head

37% acc · 48%

33% acc · 12%

Body

85% acc · 41%

83% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

31% acc · 65%

Distance

47% acc · 67%

75% acc · 35%

Clinch

40% acc · 7%

Ground

88% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daron Cruickshank rounds

even

Beneil Dariush rounds

Round 1Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:01

21Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:50Control

Round 2Beneil Dariush edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:22

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 43

Sig Strikes

27 / 51

37%

Sig Str %

55.5%

18 / 44

Total Strikes

30 / 54

0 / 5

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:23

Ctrl Time

2:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Beneil Dariush	21 / 41	23 / 43	1 / 1	1
1	Daron Cruickshank	13 / 31	13 / 31	0 / 2	0
2	Beneil Dariush	6 / 10	7 / 11	0 / 0	1
2	Daron Cruickshank	4 / 12	5 / 13	0 / 3	0

Daron Cruickshank

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights12

Beneil Dariush

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights24