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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Yohan Lainesse won · S-DEC R3

Elo1433

Elo1491

Darian WeeksvsYohan LainesseUFC Prediction Result

UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · Saturday, September 10, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Yohan Lainesse won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Darian Weeks wins(62.0%)

Actual result: Yohan Lainesse wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darian Weeks at -120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yohan Lainesse enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Darian Weeks has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Yohan Lainesse has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Darian Weeks

Red Corner

Yohan Lainesse

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1433

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Darian WeeksL2 streak

oldest →

vs Bryan Barberena · Dec 21

vs Ian Garry · Apr 22

latest

Yohan LainesseL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gabe Green · Apr 22

SUBvs Mike Malott · Feb 23

SUBvs Sam Patterson · Jan 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Darian WeeksMetricYohan Lainesse

4.49

Strikes / min

2.22

4.56

Strikes absorbed / min

3.38

51%

Strike defense

58%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

0.94

100%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.07Δ 1.09 — meaningful gap-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Darian WeeksYohan Lainesse

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Darian Weeks(3 fights)Yohan Lainesse(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -57.5|Blue +57.5

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Darian WeeksTargetYohan Lainesse

By target zone

23% acc · 32%

Head

22% acc · 43%

53% acc · 23%

Body

71% acc · 22%

69% acc · 45%

Leg

62% acc · 35%

By position

41% acc · 93%

Distance

34% acc · 96%

38% acc · 7%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Darian Weeks rounds

even

Yohan Lainesse rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:19

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Darian Weeks edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:42

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Darian Weeks edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:48

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 108

Sig Strikes

23 / 66

40%

Sig Str %

33%

49 / 113

Total Strikes

24 / 67

1 / 9

TDs

0 / 2

8.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:49

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yohan Lainesse	13 / 28	13 / 28	0 / 1
1	Darian Weeks	13 / 37	13 / 37	0 / 1
2	Yohan Lainesse	5 / 16	5 / 16	0 / 1
2	Darian Weeks	19 / 40	22 / 43	1 / 4
3	Yohan Lainesse	5 / 22	6 / 23	0 / 0
3	Darian Weeks	12 / 31	14 / 33	0 / 4

Darian Weeks

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3

Yohan Lainesse

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4