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Women's Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Daria Zhelezniakova won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1468

Daria ZhelezniakovavsMelissa MullinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Saturday, June 21, 2025Baku, Azerbaijan

Official fight result

Daria Zhelezniakova won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDaria Zhelezniakova: StrikervsMelissa Mullins: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Daria Zhelezniakova wins(55.2%)

Actual result: Daria Zhelezniakova wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daria Zhelezniakova at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daria Zhelezniakova has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Melissa Mullins has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Daria Zhelezniakova

Red Corner

Melissa Mullins

Blue Corner

+205

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1490

Elo

1468

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daria ZhelezniakovaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Montserrat Rendon · Mar 24

SUBvs Ailin Perez · Sep 24

DECvs Melissa Croden · Apr 26

latest

Melissa Mullins

oldest →

vs Irina Alekseeva · Oct 23

KOvs Nora Cornolle · Apr 24

KOvs Klaudia Sygula · Nov 24

SUBvs Bia Mesquita · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daria ZhelezniakovaMetricMelissa Mullins

4.13

Strikes / min

3.71

3.38

Strikes absorbed / min

4.39

64%

Strike defense

52%

0.31

TDs / 15 min

2.03

50%

Takedown defense

85%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.75Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap-0.68

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daria ZhelezniakovaMelissa Mullins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daria Zhelezniakova(4 fights)Melissa Mullins(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.5|Blue -22.5

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +42.0|Blue -42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daria ZhelezniakovaTargetMelissa Mullins

By target zone

39% acc · 68%

Head

35% acc · 67%

63% acc · 32%

Body

86% acc · 19%

Leg

90% acc · 14%

By position

45% acc · 99%

Distance

42% acc · 95%

33% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daria Zhelezniakova rounds

even

Melissa Mullins rounds

Round 1Daria Zhelezniakova edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 2Daria Zhelezniakova edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:08Control

Round 3Melissa Mullins edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

99 / 223

Sig Strikes

64 / 148

43.3%

Sig Str %

44.3%

103 / 228

Total Strikes

77 / 165

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 6

—

TD %

61%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

2:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Melissa Mullins	26 / 68	33 / 77	1 / 2
1	Daria Zhelezniakova	44 / 95	46 / 98	0 / 0
2	Melissa Mullins	20 / 40	25 / 46	1 / 1
2	Daria Zhelezniakova	35 / 65	35 / 65	0 / 0
3	Melissa Mullins	18 / 40	19 / 42	1 / 3
3	Daria Zhelezniakova	20 / 63	22 / 65	0 / 0

Daria Zhelezniakova

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights3

Melissa Mullins

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5