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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Danny Silva won · S-DEC R3
Elo1527
Elo1479
Lucas Almeida

Danny SilvavsLucas AlmeidaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · Saturday, March 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Danny Silva won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDanny Silva: WrestlervsLucas Almeida: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Danny Silva wins(83.0%)

Actual result: Danny Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Silva at -255 American odds

+$39 profit

$139 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Danny Silva has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Danny Silva has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Danny Silva (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Danny Silva
Red Corner
VS
Lucas Almeida
Blue Corner
-255
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
1527
Elo
1479
29
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'11"
175.26 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny Silva
oldest →
W
vs Josh Culibao · Mar 24
L
vs Kevin Vallejos · Aug 25
W
KOvs Kurtis Campbell · Mar 26
latest
Lucas Almeida
oldest →
W
KOvs Michael Trizano · Jun 22
L
SUBvs Pat Sabatini · Jun 23
L
KOvs Andre Fili · Dec 23
W
vs Timmy Cuamba · Jun 24
L
KOvs Michael Aswell Jr. · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny SilvaMetricLucas Almeida
6.35
Strikes / min
4.94
7.10
Strikes absorbed / min
5.36
61%
Strike defense
44%
2.06
TDs / 15 min
0.00
75%
Takedown defense
53%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.75evenly matched on net striking-0.42

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1518 vs 1503Strikes6.3 vs 4.9Takedowns2.1 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs 0.1
Danny SilvaLucas Almeida

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601480150015201540← oldermost recent →
Danny Silva(4 fights)Lucas Almeida(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +47.6|Blue -47.6
Recent Form
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Layoff
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny SilvaTargetLucas Almeida

By target zone

45
47% acc · 55%
Head
49
24% acc · 66%
14
78% acc · 17%
Body
14
61% acc · 19%
23
100% acc · 28%
Leg
11
79% acc · 15%

By position

81
61% acc · 99%
Distance
73
31% acc · 99%
0
0% acc
Clinch
1
100% acc · 1%
1
50% acc · 1%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Danny Silva rounds
0
even
1
Lucas Almeida rounds
Round 1Danny Silva edged it
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:24
17Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:10Control
Round 2Danny Silva edged it
Sig. strikes36
Takedowns1
Control0:15
29Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Lucas Almeida edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:10
28Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:07Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
82 / 137
Sig Strikes
74 / 240
58.7%
Sig Str %
30.7%
85 / 141
Total Strikes
78 / 244
1 / 3
TDs
0 / 1
25%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:49
Ctrl Time
0:17

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Lucas Almeida17 / 5218 / 530 / 10
1Danny Silva24 / 4327 / 460 / 00
2Lucas Almeida29 / 8932 / 920 / 00
2Danny Silva36 / 5536 / 561 / 20
3Lucas Almeida28 / 9928 / 990 / 00
3Danny Silva22 / 3922 / 390 / 10

Danny Silva

StanceSwitch
Height67.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights4

Lucas Almeida

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6