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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Danny Roberts won · S-DEC R3

Elo1467

Elo1428

Danny RobertsvsRamazan EmeevUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ladd vs. Dumont · Saturday, October 16, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Danny Roberts won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDanny Roberts: StrikervsRamazan Emeev: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Ramazan Emeev wins(70.7%)

Actual result: Danny Roberts wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ramazan Emeev at -320 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Roberts enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Ramazan Emeev has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Danny Roberts

Red Corner

Ramazan Emeev

Blue Corner

+250

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1467

Elo

1428

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny RobertsL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Michel Pereira · May 19

KOvs Zelim Imadaev · Nov 19

vs Francisco Trinaldo · May 22

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 22

KOvs Jonny Parsons · Jul 23

latest

Ramazan Emeev

oldest →

vs Stefan Sekulic · Sep 18

DECvs Rocco Martin · Nov 19

vs Niklas Stolze · Jul 20

vs David Zawada · Jan 21

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny RobertsMetricRamazan Emeev

3.18

Strikes / min

2.53

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

2.14

50%

Strike defense

65%

0.24

TDs / 15 min

2.37

57%

Takedown defense

66%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.55evenly matched on net striking+0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Danny RobertsRamazan Emeev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Roberts(10 fights)Ramazan Emeev(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.9|Blue -39.9

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +434.0|Blue -434.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny RobertsTargetRamazan Emeev

By target zone

24% acc · 50%

Head

47% acc · 80%

76% acc · 47%

Body

73% acc · 20%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

22% acc · 41%

Distance

43% acc · 70%

69% acc · 59%

Clinch

85% acc · 28%

0% acc

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Roberts rounds

even

Ramazan Emeev rounds

Round 1Ramazan Emeev edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:26

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:04Control

Round 2Ramazan Emeev edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:22

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 3Danny Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:50

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 94

Sig Strikes

40 / 79

33.3%

Sig Str %

50.3%

42 / 102

Total Strikes

67 / 112

1 / 3

TDs

2 / 7

25%

TD %

41.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:38

Ctrl Time

2:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ramazan Emeev	7 / 18	11 / 24	1 / 1	0
1	Danny Roberts	4 / 22	5 / 23	0 / 1	0
2	Ramazan Emeev	13 / 20	25 / 33	1 / 4	1
2	Danny Roberts	7 / 17	12 / 22	1 / 2	0
3	Ramazan Emeev	20 / 41	31 / 55	0 / 2	0
3	Danny Roberts	23 / 55	25 / 57	0 / 0	0

Danny Roberts

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Ramazan Emeev

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8