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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Danny Roberts won · SUB R1

Elo1467

Elo1491

Danny RobertsvsNathan CoyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · Thursday, December 10, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Danny Roberts won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:46

Style matchupDanny Roberts: StrikervsNathan Coy: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Nathan Coy wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Danny Roberts wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nathan Coy at +140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Roberts enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Nathan Coy has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Danny Roberts has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Danny Roberts

Red Corner

Nathan Coy

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1467

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny RobertsL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Zelim Imadaev · Nov 19

vs Ramazan Emeev · Oct 21

vs Francisco Trinaldo · May 22

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 22

KOvs Jonny Parsons · Jul 23

latest

Nathan Coy

oldest →

vs Jonavin Webb · Feb 16

SUBvs Zak Cummings · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny RobertsMetricNathan Coy

3.18

Strikes / min

3.88

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

2.40

50%

Strike defense

61%

0.24

TDs / 15 min

3.17

57%

Takedown defense

50%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.55Δ 2.03 — meaningful gap+1.48

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Roberts(10 fights)Nathan Coy(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -23.3|Blue +23.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny RobertsTargetNathan Coy

By target zone

23% acc · 50%

Head

42% acc · 91%

33% acc · 17%

Body

67% acc · 33%

Leg

33% acc · 9%

By position

29% acc · 83%

Distance

36% acc · 82%

50% acc · 17%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 18%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Roberts rounds

even

Nathan Coy rounds

Round 1Nathan Coy edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 19

Sig Strikes

11 / 27

31%

Sig Str %

40%

8 / 21

Total Strikes

14 / 30

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nathan Coy	11 / 27	14 / 30	1 / 1	0
1	Danny Roberts	6 / 19	8 / 21	0 / 0	1

Danny Roberts

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Nathan Coy

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights3