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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Mike Perry won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1467

Elo1399

Danny RobertsvsMike PerryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · Saturday, October 8, 2016Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Mike Perry won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:40

Style matchupDanny Roberts: StrikervsMike Perry: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Danny Roberts wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Mike Perry wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Roberts at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Roberts enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Mike Perry is a KO finisher (57% of wins). Danny Roberts has lost 71% of fights by KO.
Mike Perry has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Danny Roberts (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Danny Roberts

Red Corner

Mike Perry

Blue Corner

+110

(48%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1467

Elo

1399

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny RobertsL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Zelim Imadaev · Nov 19

vs Ramazan Emeev · Oct 21

vs Francisco Trinaldo · May 22

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 22

KOvs Jonny Parsons · Jul 23

latest

Mike PerryL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Vincente Luque · Aug 19

KOvs Geoff Neal · Dec 19

vs Mickey Gall · Jun 20

vs Tim Means · Nov 20

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Apr 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny RobertsMetricMike Perry

3.18

Strikes / min

4.32

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

5.16

50%

Strike defense

52%

0.24

TDs / 15 min

0.81

57%

Takedown defense

78%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.55evenly matched on net striking-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Danny RobertsMike Perry

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Roberts(10 fights)Mike Perry(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +68.7|Blue -68.7

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny RobertsTargetMike Perry

By target zone

27% acc · 65%

Head

40% acc · 87%

38% acc · 7%

Body

42% acc · 6%

92% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

34% acc · 98%

Distance

35% acc · 63%

40% acc · 2%

Clinch

48% acc · 17%

Ground

86% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Roberts rounds

even

Mike Perry rounds

Round 1Mike Perry edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

Round 2Danny Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 3Mike Perry edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

34Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

81 / 239

Sig Strikes

90 / 214

33.7%

Sig Str %

41.7%

81 / 239

Total Strikes

103 / 228

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mike Perry	30 / 77	34 / 82	0 / 0
1	Danny Roberts	22 / 62	22 / 62	0 / 1
2	Mike Perry	26 / 68	34 / 76	0 / 0
2	Danny Roberts	33 / 88	33 / 88	0 / 2
3	Mike Perry	34 / 69	35 / 70	0 / 0
3	Danny Roberts	26 / 89	26 / 89	0 / 1

Danny Roberts

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Mike Perry

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15