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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Michel Pereira won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1467
Danny Roberts
Elo1492
Michel Pereira editorial illustration

Danny RobertsvsMichel PereiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · Saturday, May 18, 2019Rochester, New York, USA

Official fight result

Michel Pereira won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:47

Style matchupDanny Roberts: StrikervsMichel Pereira: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Danny Roberts wins(67.9%)

Actual result: Michel Pereira wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Roberts at -250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Danny Roberts enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Michel Pereira has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Danny Roberts (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Danny Roberts
Red Corner
VS
Michel Pereira
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+210
(32%)
1467
Elo
1492
39
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'1"
187.96 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny RobertsL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Zelim Imadaev · Nov 19
W
vs Ramazan Emeev · Oct 21
L
vs Francisco Trinaldo · May 22
L
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 22
L
KOvs Jonny Parsons · Jul 23
latest
Michel Pereira
oldest →
L
KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Oct 24
L
vs Abus Magomedov · Apr 25
L
KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Aug 25
W
vs Zach Reese · Feb 26
L
DECvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny RobertsMetricMichel Pereira
3.18
Strikes / min
4.46
3.73
Strikes absorbed / min
4.40
50%
Strike defense
51%
0.24
TDs / 15 min
1.21
57%
Takedown defense
75%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.55evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1531 vs 1500Strikes30.9 vs —Takedowns0.0 vs —Sub Atts0.25 vs —Form-0.1 vs 0.0
Danny RobertsMichel Pereira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Danny Roberts(10 fights)Michel Pereira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -24.6|Blue +24.6
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -48.1|Blue +48.1
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny RobertsTargetMichel Pereira

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
4
44% acc · 67%
0
Body
2
100% acc · 33%
2
100% acc · 100%
Leg
0

By position

2
50% acc · 100%
Distance
5
50% acc · 83%
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 17%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Danny Roberts rounds
0
even
1
Michel Pereira rounds
Round 1Michel Pereira edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:02Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
2 / 4
Sig Strikes
6 / 11
50%
Sig Str %
54%
2 / 4
Total Strikes
6 / 11
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:02

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Michel Pereira6 / 116 / 110 / 00
1Danny Roberts2 / 42 / 40 / 00

Danny Roberts

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14

Michel Pereira

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights16