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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Danny Roberts won · U-DEC R3

Elo1467

Elo1361

Danny RobertsvsDominique SteeleUFC Prediction Result

UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · Saturday, April 23, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Danny Roberts won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDanny Roberts: StrikervsDominique Steele: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Dominique Steele wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Danny Roberts wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dominique Steele at +295 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Roberts enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dominique Steele is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Danny Roberts has lost 71% of fights by KO.
Dominique Steele has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Danny Roberts (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Danny Roberts

Red Corner

Dominique Steele

Blue Corner

-355

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1467

Elo

1361

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny RobertsL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Zelim Imadaev · Nov 19

vs Ramazan Emeev · Oct 21

vs Francisco Trinaldo · May 22

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 22

KOvs Jonny Parsons · Jul 23

latest

Dominique SteeleL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Zak Cummings · Jul 15

KOvs Dong Hyun Ma · Nov 15

vs Court McGee · Aug 16

vs Luke Jumeau · Jun 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny RobertsMetricDominique Steele

3.18

Strikes / min

2.32

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

2.42

50%

Strike defense

50%

0.24

TDs / 15 min

2.95

57%

Takedown defense

76%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.55evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Danny RobertsDominique Steele

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Roberts(10 fights)Dominique Steele(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +106.9|Blue -106.9

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -12.0|Blue +12.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny RobertsTargetDominique Steele

By target zone

44% acc · 57%

Head

36% acc · 59%

77% acc · 38%

Body

65% acc · 32%

75% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

40% acc · 45%

Distance

36% acc · 35%

70% acc · 38%

Clinch

53% acc · 56%

91% acc · 17%

Ground

50% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Roberts rounds

even

Dominique Steele rounds

Round 1Dominique Steele edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:24

Knockdowns0

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:22Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Danny Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:30

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:14Control

Round 3Dominique Steele edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:10

8Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

3:05Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 112

Sig Strikes

34 / 75

56.7%

Sig Str %

46.3%

66 / 119

Total Strikes

56 / 98

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 14

—

TD %

41.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:04

Ctrl Time

7:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dominique Steele	10 / 18	27 / 36	2 / 4
1	Danny Roberts	9 / 13	12 / 16	0 / 0
2	Dominique Steele	16 / 38	21 / 43	1 / 4
2	Danny Roberts	31 / 57	33 / 59	0 / 0
3	Dominique Steele	8 / 19	8 / 19	3 / 6
3	Danny Roberts	20 / 42	21 / 44	0 / 0

Danny Roberts

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Dominique Steele

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5