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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Danny Roberts won · S-DEC R3

Elo1467

Elo1407

Danny RobertsvsDavid ZawadaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · Sunday, July 22, 2018Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

Official fight result

Danny Roberts won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDanny Roberts: StrikervsDavid Zawada: Submission grappler

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Danny Roberts wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Danny Roberts wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Roberts at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Roberts enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Danny Roberts (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Danny Roberts

Red Corner

David Zawada

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1467

Elo

1407

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny RobertsL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Zelim Imadaev · Nov 19

vs Ramazan Emeev · Oct 21

vs Francisco Trinaldo · May 22

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 22

KOvs Jonny Parsons · Jul 23

latest

David ZawadaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Li Jingliang · Nov 18

SUBvs Abubakar Nurmagomedov · Nov 19

vs Ramazan Emeev · Jan 21

vs Alex Morono · Sep 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny RobertsMetricDavid Zawada

3.18

Strikes / min

3.84

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

4.54

50%

Strike defense

55%

0.24

TDs / 15 min

0.97

57%

Takedown defense

57%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.55evenly matched on net striking-0.70

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Danny RobertsDavid Zawada

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Roberts(10 fights)David Zawada(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +60.5|Blue -60.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -48.2|Blue +48.2

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny RobertsTargetDavid Zawada

By target zone

44% acc · 71%

Head

41% acc · 64%

100% acc · 13%

Body

91% acc · 30%

88% acc · 16%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

31% acc · 31%

Distance

38% acc · 55%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

91% acc · 30%

73% acc · 67%

Ground

100% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Roberts rounds

even

David Zawada rounds

Round 1Danny Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control3:29

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2David Zawada edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control2:31

8Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 3Danny Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control2:47

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 87

Sig Strikes

33 / 64

49.3%

Sig Str %

51%

68 / 117

Total Strikes

63 / 99

0 / 2

TDs

2 / 5

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

8:47

Ctrl Time

2:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	David Zawada	14 / 24	26 / 37	0 / 2	1
1	Danny Roberts	19 / 40	21 / 42	0 / 0	1
2	David Zawada	8 / 21	20 / 37	2 / 2	2
2	Danny Roberts	5 / 12	16 / 27	0 / 1	0
3	David Zawada	11 / 19	17 / 25	0 / 1	2
3	Danny Roberts	21 / 35	31 / 48	0 / 1	0

Danny Roberts

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

David Zawada

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5