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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Claudio Silva won · SUB R3

Elo1467

Elo1431

Danny RobertsvsClaudio SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Till vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 16, 2019London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Claudio Silva won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:37

Style matchupDanny Roberts: StrikervsClaudio Silva: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Claudio Silva wins(62.7%)

Actual result: Claudio Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Claudio Silva at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Roberts enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Claudio Silva enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Danny Roberts

Red Corner

Claudio Silva

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1467

Elo

1431

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

6'1"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny RobertsL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Zelim Imadaev · Nov 19

vs Ramazan Emeev · Oct 21

vs Francisco Trinaldo · May 22

KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Nov 22

KOvs Jonny Parsons · Jul 23

latest

Claudio SilvaL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Nordine Taleb · May 18

SUBvs Cole Williams · Aug 19

vs James Krause · Oct 20

vs Court McGee · May 21

vs Nicolas Dalby · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny RobertsMetricClaudio Silva

3.18

Strikes / min

2.48

3.73

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

50%

Strike defense

46%

0.24

TDs / 15 min

2.85

57%

Takedown defense

44%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.55evenly matched on net striking-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Danny RobertsClaudio Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Roberts(10 fights)Claudio Silva(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +36.5|Blue -36.5

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -56.0|Blue +56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny RobertsTargetClaudio Silva

By target zone

56% acc · 92%

Head

36% acc · 53%

100% acc · 8%

Body

67% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 37%

By position

33% acc · 23%

Distance

42% acc · 58%

100% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

72% acc · 69%

Ground

64% acc · 37%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Roberts rounds

even

Claudio Silva rounds

Round 1Claudio Silva edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:20

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:07Control

Round 2Claudio Silva edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:56

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:07Control

Round 3Danny Roberts edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:56

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 45

Sig Strikes

19 / 38

55.3%

Sig Str %

35.7%

29 / 48

Total Strikes

35 / 56

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 5

—

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

3:12

Ctrl Time

6:14

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Claudio Silva	10 / 21	20 / 32	1 / 1	1
1	Danny Roberts	6 / 12	7 / 13	0 / 0	0
2	Claudio Silva	9 / 15	15 / 22	2 / 4	1
2	Danny Roberts	6 / 12	6 / 12	0 / 0	0
3	Claudio Silva	0 / 2	0 / 2	0 / 0	2
3	Danny Roberts	14 / 21	16 / 23	0 / 0	0

Danny Roberts

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Claudio Silva

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights8