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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Sirwan Kakai won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Danny MartinezvsSirwan KakaiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Romero · Saturday, June 27, 2015Hollywood, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Sirwan Kakai won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDanny Martinez: WrestlervsSirwan Kakai: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Danny Martinez wins(61.7%)

Actual result: Sirwan Kakai wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Martinez at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sirwan Kakai has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Danny Martinez

Red Corner

Sirwan Kakai

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny Martinez

oldest →

vs Chris Cariaso · Feb 14

vs Scott Jorgensen · Jun 14

vs Richie Vaculik · Nov 15

latest

Sirwan Kakai

oldest →

vs Frankie Saenz · Aug 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny MartinezMetricSirwan Kakai

2.73

Strikes / min

3.57

3.77

Strikes absorbed / min

4.63

63%

Strike defense

62%

3.00

TDs / 15 min

4.00

36%

Takedown defense

83%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.04evenly matched on net striking-1.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Danny MartinezSirwan Kakai

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Martinez(4 fights)Sirwan Kakai(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.9|Blue +48.9

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny MartinezTargetSirwan Kakai

By target zone

23% acc · 59%

Head

35% acc · 92%

69% acc · 41%

Body

57% acc · 8%

Leg

By position

28% acc · 76%

Distance

27% acc · 62%

56% acc · 24%

Clinch

68% acc · 33%

Ground

100% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Martinez rounds

even

Sirwan Kakai rounds

Round 1Sirwan Kakai edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:07

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:12Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Sirwan Kakai edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:46Control

Round 3Danny Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 184

Sig Strikes

52 / 146

32.3%

Sig Str %

35.7%

62 / 188

Total Strikes

85 / 179

0 / 0

TDs

5 / 10

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

5:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sirwan Kakai	28 / 56	42 / 70	1 / 4
1	Danny Martinez	22 / 70	25 / 74	0 / 0
2	Sirwan Kakai	12 / 33	30 / 51	3 / 4
2	Danny Martinez	16 / 43	16 / 43	0 / 0
3	Sirwan Kakai	12 / 57	13 / 58	1 / 2
3	Danny Martinez	21 / 71	21 / 71	0 / 0

Danny Martinez

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4

Sirwan Kakai

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach—

Fights2