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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jeremy Stephens won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1473

Danny DownesvsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesnar vs Team dos Santos Finale · Saturday, June 4, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jeremy Stephens won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jeremy Stephens wins(64.9%)

Actual result: Jeremy Stephens wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jeremy Stephens at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Jeremy Stephens has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Jeremy Stephens has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Danny Downes

Red Corner

Jeremy Stephens

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-360

(78%)

1351

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny Downes

oldest →

vs Ramsey Nijem · Oct 11

latest

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny DownesMetricJeremy Stephens

1.66

Strikes / min

3.13

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

37%

Strike defense

57%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.10

37%

Takedown defense

61%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.87Δ 1.75 — meaningful gap-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Danny DownesJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Downes(2 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -121.4|Blue +121.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +48.1|Blue -48.1

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny DownesTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

16% acc · 28%

Head

56% acc · 71%

73% acc · 50%

Body

83% acc · 18%

70% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

24% acc · 53%

Distance

51% acc · 55%

83% acc · 47%

Clinch

84% acc · 29%

Ground

90% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Downes rounds

even

Jeremy Stephens rounds

Round 1Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:13

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:24Control

Round 2Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:05

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:45Control

Round 3Jeremy Stephens edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:10

12Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

4:09Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 88

Sig Strikes

55 / 88

34.7%

Sig Str %

65.7%

48 / 107

Total Strikes

87 / 121

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 8

—

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

8:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jeremy Stephens	28 / 49	39 / 61	0 / 2	0
1	Danny Downes	16 / 41	25 / 53	0 / 0	0
2	Jeremy Stephens	15 / 23	16 / 24	2 / 2	2
2	Danny Downes	12 / 34	14 / 36	0 / 0	1
3	Jeremy Stephens	12 / 16	32 / 36	4 / 4	1
3	Danny Downes	4 / 13	9 / 18	0 / 0	0

Danny Downes

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights2

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27