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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Danny Castillo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1492

Danny CastillovsTim MeansUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · Saturday, July 27, 2013Seattle, Washington, USA

Official fight result

Danny Castillo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDanny Castillo: WrestlervsTim Means: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Danny Castillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Castillo at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tim Means has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Danny Castillo

Red Corner

Tim Means

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+245

(29%)

1356

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'2"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny CastilloL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14

vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14

KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15

vs Jim Miller · Jul 15

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15

latest

Tim MeansL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Griffin · Oct 22

SUBvs Alex Morono · May 23

KOvs Andre Fialho · Sep 23

KOvs Uros Medic · Apr 24

SUBvs Court McGee · Oct 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny CastilloMetricTim Means

2.57

Strikes / min

5.04

1.96

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

62%

Strike defense

60%

2.95

TDs / 15 min

1.14

63%

Takedown defense

64%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61evenly matched on net striking+1.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Danny CastilloTim Means

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Castillo(10 fights)Tim Means(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -135.8|Blue +135.8

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +63.0|Blue -63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny CastilloTargetTim Means

By target zone

25% acc · 68%

Head

27% acc · 50%

63% acc · 20%

Body

79% acc · 39%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

31% acc · 96%

Distance

37% acc · 84%

Clinch

100% acc · 11%

50% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Castillo rounds

even

Tim Means rounds

Round 1Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns3

Control4:01

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control1:25

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Tim Means edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:10

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 79

Sig Strikes

38 / 93

34%

Sig Str %

46%

59 / 115

Total Strikes

126 / 184

6 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

72%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:36

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Tim Means	5 / 8	73 / 79	0 / 0
1	Danny Castillo	3 / 7	30 / 35	3 / 3
2	Tim Means	12 / 33	25 / 46	0 / 0
2	Danny Castillo	10 / 33	17 / 41	2 / 3
3	Tim Means	21 / 52	28 / 59	0 / 0
3	Danny Castillo	12 / 39	12 / 39	1 / 2

Danny Castillo

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14

Tim Means

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights29