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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Danny Castillo won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1356
Elo1351

Danny CastillovsShamar BaileyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · Saturday, November 19, 2011San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Danny Castillo won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:52

Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(72.5%)

Actual result: Danny Castillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Castillo at -375 American odds

+$27 profit

$127 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Danny Castillo has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Shamar Bailey (53.5%).
  • Shamar Bailey has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Danny Castillo
Red Corner
VS
Shamar Bailey
Blue Corner
-375
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+335
(23%)
1356
Elo
1351
46
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny CastilloL4 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14
L
vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14
L
KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15
L
vs Jim Miller · Jul 15
L
vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15
latest
Shamar Bailey
oldest →
W
vs Ryan McGillivray · Jun 11
L
vs Evan Dunham · Sep 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny CastilloMetricShamar Bailey
2.57
Strikes / min
1.56
1.96
Strikes absorbed / min
3.91
62%
Strike defense
69%
2.95
TDs / 15 min
1.50
63%
Takedown defense
37%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.61Δ 2.96 — meaningful gap-2.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1498Strikes38.5 vs 34.0Takedowns3.0 vs 2.5Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.2 vs -0.1
Danny CastilloShamar Bailey

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Danny Castillo(10 fights)Shamar Bailey(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +4.7|Blue -4.7
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +34.0|Blue -34.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny CastilloTargetShamar Bailey

By target zone

17
59% acc · 77%
Head
3
75% acc · 100%
4
100% acc · 18%
Body
0
1
100% acc · 5%
Leg
0

By position

2
100% acc · 9%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
1
100% acc · 33%
20
63% acc · 91%
Ground
2
100% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Danny Castillo rounds
0
even
0
Shamar Bailey rounds
Round 1Danny Castillo edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns3
Control4:35
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
22 / 34
Sig Strikes
3 / 4
64%
Sig Str %
75%
45 / 61
Total Strikes
21 / 23
3 / 3
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
4:35
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Shamar Bailey3 / 421 / 230 / 00
1Danny Castillo22 / 3445 / 613 / 30

Danny Castillo

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights14

Shamar Bailey

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3