Lightweight

3 Rounds

Paul Felder won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1356

Elo1392

Danny CastillovsPaul FelderUFC Prediction Result

UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · Saturday, January 3, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Paul Felder won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:09

Style matchupDanny Castillo: WrestlervsPaul Felder: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Paul Felder wins(62.0%)

Actual result: Paul Felder wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Felder at +235 American odds

+$235 profit

$335 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Castillo enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Danny Castillo has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Danny Castillo

Red Corner

Paul Felder

Blue Corner

-255

(72%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1356

Elo

1392

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny CastilloL3 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 13

KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14

vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14

vs Jim Miller · Jul 15

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15

latest

Paul FelderL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Perry · Jul 18

vs James Vick · Feb 19

vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19

vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny CastilloMetricPaul Felder

2.57

Strikes / min

3.70

1.96

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

62%

Strike defense

48%

2.95

TDs / 15 min

0.29

63%

Takedown defense

64%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Danny CastilloPaul Felder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Castillo(10 fights)Paul Felder(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -35.8|Blue +35.8

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny CastilloTargetPaul Felder

By target zone

24% acc · 43%

Head

15% acc · 30%

89% acc · 38%

Body

45% acc · 15%

80% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 55%

By position

40% acc · 100%

Distance

34% acc · 94%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

Ground

50% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Castillo rounds

even

Paul Felder rounds

Round 1Paul Felder edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Paul Felder edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 52

Sig Strikes

33 / 94

38%

Sig Str %

36%

21 / 52

Total Strikes

33 / 94

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paul Felder	20 / 63	20 / 63	0 / 0
1	Danny Castillo	15 / 33	15 / 33	0 / 1
2	Paul Felder	13 / 31	13 / 31	0 / 0
2	Danny Castillo	6 / 19	6 / 19	0 / 1

Danny Castillo

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14

Paul Felder

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15