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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Danny Castillo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1352

Danny CastillovsJohn CholishUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · Saturday, May 5, 2012East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Danny Castillo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDanny Castillo: WrestlervsJohn Cholish: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: John Cholish wins(50.6%)

Actual result: Danny Castillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Cholish at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
John Cholish has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
John Cholish has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Danny Castillo

Red Corner

John Cholish

Blue Corner

+140

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1356

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny CastilloL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14

vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14

KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15

vs Jim Miller · Jul 15

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15

latest

John Cholish

oldest →

KOvs Mitch Clarke · Dec 11

SUBvs Gleison Tibau · May 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny CastilloMetricJohn Cholish

2.57

Strikes / min

2.65

1.96

Strikes absorbed / min

2.29

62%

Strike defense

73%

2.95

TDs / 15 min

1.82

63%

Takedown defense

78%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61evenly matched on net striking+0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Danny CastilloJohn Cholish

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Castillo(10 fights)John Cholish(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.7|Blue -3.7

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -20.0|Blue +20.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny CastilloTargetJohn Cholish

By target zone

27% acc · 56%

Head

27% acc · 69%

82% acc · 17%

Body

67% acc · 7%

88% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

28% acc · 60%

Distance

33% acc · 93%

86% acc · 35%

Clinch

67% acc · 7%

50% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Castillo rounds

even

John Cholish rounds

Round 1Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:50

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:28Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:09

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 3Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control1:56

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 136

Sig Strikes

29 / 84

37.3%

Sig Str %

36%

62 / 147

Total Strikes

31 / 86

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 6

33.3%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:55

Ctrl Time

0:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	John Cholish	9 / 19	9 / 19	0 / 3
1	Danny Castillo	20 / 45	22 / 47	0 / 1
2	John Cholish	11 / 32	12 / 33	1 / 3
2	Danny Castillo	13 / 42	15 / 44	1 / 1
3	John Cholish	9 / 33	10 / 34	0 / 0
3	Danny Castillo	19 / 49	25 / 56	0 / 1

Danny Castillo

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14

John Cholish

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3