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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Edson Barboza won · M-DEC R3

Elo1356

Elo1480

Danny CastillovsEdson BarbozaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · Saturday, December 14, 2013Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Edson Barboza won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDanny Castillo: WrestlervsEdson Barboza: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Edson Barboza wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Edson Barboza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edson Barboza at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Castillo enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Edson Barboza has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Danny Castillo

Red Corner

Edson Barboza

Blue Corner

+255

(28%)

Vegas Odds

-280

(74%)

1356

Elo

1480

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny CastilloL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Charlie Brenneman · Apr 14

vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14

KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15

vs Jim Miller · Jul 15

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15

latest

Edson BarbozaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Apr 23

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Oct 23

vs Lerone Murphy · May 24

vs Drakkar Klose · Aug 25

KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny CastilloMetricEdson Barboza

2.57

Strikes / min

4.14

1.96

Strikes absorbed / min

4.68

62%

Strike defense

55%

2.95

TDs / 15 min

0.43

63%

Takedown defense

73%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61Δ 1.15 — meaningful gap-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Danny CastilloEdson Barboza

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Castillo(10 fights)Edson Barboza(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -123.9|Blue +123.9

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny CastilloTargetEdson Barboza

By target zone

44% acc · 96%

Head

19% acc · 37%

25% acc · 2%

Body

50% acc · 26%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

94% acc · 37%

By position

37% acc · 49%

Distance

32% acc · 81%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

53% acc · 49%

Ground

57% acc · 19%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Castillo rounds

even

Edson Barboza rounds

Round 1Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns1

Control3:02

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Edson Barboza edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 125

Sig Strikes

43 / 123

36%

Sig Str %

32.3%

67 / 140

Total Strikes

43 / 125

1 / 10

TDs

0 / 1

11%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:02

Ctrl Time

0:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Edson Barboza	5 / 30	5 / 32	0 / 0	0
1	Danny Castillo	41 / 72	48 / 82	1 / 3	1
2	Edson Barboza	22 / 46	22 / 46	0 / 0	1
2	Danny Castillo	5 / 20	10 / 25	0 / 2	0
3	Edson Barboza	16 / 47	16 / 47	0 / 1	0
3	Danny Castillo	9 / 33	9 / 33	0 / 5	0

Danny Castillo

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14

Edson Barboza

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights32