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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Danny Castillo won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1356

Elo1354

Danny CastillovsCharlie BrennemanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · Saturday, April 26, 2014Baltimore, Maryland, USA

Official fight result

Danny Castillo won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:21

Style matchupDanny Castillo: WrestlervsCharlie Brenneman: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Danny Castillo wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Danny Castillo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Castillo at -355 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Castillo enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Charlie Brenneman enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Danny Castillo has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Danny Castillo

Red Corner

Charlie Brenneman

Blue Corner

-355

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+320

(24%)

1356

Elo

1354

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny CastilloL5 streak

oldest →

vs Edson Barboza · Dec 13

vs Tony Ferguson · Aug 14

KOvs Paul Felder · Jan 15

vs Jim Miller · Jul 15

vs Nik Lentz · Dec 15

latest

Charlie BrennemanL4 streak

oldest →

vs Daniel Roberts · Jan 12

SUBvs Erick Silva · Jun 12

KOvs Kyle Noke · Sep 12

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Jan 14

SUBvs Leandro Silva · Nov 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny CastilloMetricCharlie Brenneman

2.57

Strikes / min

1.52

1.96

Strikes absorbed / min

1.55

62%

Strike defense

46%

2.95

TDs / 15 min

4.23

63%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.61evenly matched on net striking-0.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Danny CastilloCharlie Brenneman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Castillo(10 fights)Charlie Brenneman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +32.0|Blue -32.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny CastilloTargetCharlie Brenneman

By target zone

50% acc · 19%

Head

27% acc · 23%

75% acc · 19%

Body

100% acc · 62%

91% acc · 63%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

62% acc · 50%

Distance

42% acc · 38%

100% acc · 50%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

Ground

100% acc · 54%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Castillo rounds

even

Charlie Brenneman rounds

Round 1Charlie Brenneman edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:56

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 2Danny Castillo edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 21

Sig Strikes

13 / 21

87.5%

Sig Str %

80%

20 / 25

Total Strikes

35 / 44

0 / 3

TDs

2 / 4

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

2:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Charlie Brenneman	12 / 20	34 / 43	2 / 4
1	Danny Castillo	15 / 20	19 / 24	0 / 3
2	Charlie Brenneman	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0
2	Danny Castillo	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0

Danny Castillo

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14

Charlie Brenneman

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11