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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Sam Patterson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1488

Elo1552

Danny BarlowvsSam PattersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · Saturday, March 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sam Patterson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:10

Style matchupDanny Barlow: Pressure fightervsSam Patterson: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Danny Barlow wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Sam Patterson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Danny Barlow at -245 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Barlow is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Sam Patterson has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Sam Patterson is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Danny Barlow has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Danny Barlow has 67pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Danny Barlow (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Danny Barlow

Red Corner

Sam Patterson

Blue Corner

-245

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1488

Elo

1552

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny Barlow

oldest →

KOvs Josh Quinlan · Feb 24

vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Aug 24

vs Djorden Santos · Oct 25

latest

Sam Patterson

oldest →

SUBvs Yohan Lainesse · Jan 24

SUBvs Kiefer Crosbie · Jul 24

KOvs Trey Waters · Sep 25

vs Michael Page · Mar 26

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny BarlowMetricSam Patterson

5.81

Strikes / min

2.62

4.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.06

52%

Strike defense

50%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.82

100%

Takedown defense

33%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.16Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Danny BarlowSam Patterson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Barlow(4 fights)Sam Patterson(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -64.0|Blue +64.0

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny BarlowTargetSam Patterson

By target zone

43% acc · 67%

Head

50% acc · 78%

67% acc · 13%

Body

67% acc · 22%

75% acc · 20%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 100%

Distance

52% acc · 83%

Clinch

Ground

60% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Barlow rounds

even

Sam Patterson rounds

Round 1Sam Patterson edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

15 / 30

Sig Strikes

18 / 34

50%

Sig Str %

52%

15 / 30

Total Strikes

18 / 34

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sam Patterson	18 / 34	18 / 34	0 / 0	0
1	Danny Barlow	15 / 30	15 / 30	0 / 0	0

Danny Barlow

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4

Sam Patterson

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7