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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Djorden Santos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1488

Elo1481

Danny BarlowvsDjorden SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · Saturday, October 18, 2025Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Djorden Santos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDanny Barlow: Pressure fightervsDjorden Santos: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Djorden Santos wins(51.4%)

Actual result: Djorden Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Djorden Santos at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Danny Barlow has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Danny Barlow (53.5%).
Danny Barlow has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Danny Barlow

Red Corner

Djorden Santos

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1488

Elo

1481

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Danny Barlow

oldest →

KOvs Josh Quinlan · Feb 24

vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Aug 24

KOvs Sam Patterson · Mar 25

latest

Djorden SantosL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ozzy Diaz · Mar 25

SUBvs Baisangur Susurkaev · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Danny BarlowMetricDjorden Santos

5.81

Strikes / min

6.64

4.65

Strikes absorbed / min

6.35

52%

Strike defense

48%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.51

100%

Takedown defense

85%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.16evenly matched on net striking+0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Danny BarlowDjorden Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Danny Barlow(4 fights)Djorden Santos(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.4|Blue -6.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Danny BarlowTargetDjorden Santos

By target zone

43% acc · 60%

Head

41% acc · 75%

80% acc · 13%

Body

61% acc · 11%

93% acc · 27%

Leg

88% acc · 14%

By position

54% acc · 99%

Distance

45% acc · 96%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

75% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Danny Barlow rounds

even

Djorden Santos rounds

Round 1Danny Barlow edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:00

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Danny Barlow edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:00

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Djorden Santos edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:55Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

93 / 171

Sig Strikes

99 / 216

53.3%

Sig Str %

47.7%

106 / 186

Total Strikes

109 / 232

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Djorden Santos	27 / 49	27 / 49	0 / 0
1	Danny Barlow	32 / 49	32 / 49	0 / 0
2	Djorden Santos	42 / 105	42 / 105	0 / 0
2	Danny Barlow	45 / 83	45 / 83	0 / 0
3	Djorden Santos	30 / 62	40 / 78	0 / 1
3	Danny Barlow	16 / 39	29 / 54	0 / 0

Danny Barlow

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4

Djorden Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3