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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Zellhuber won · U-DEC R3

Elo1476

Elo1452

Daniel ZellhubervsFrancisco PradoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Saturday, February 24, 2024Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Daniel Zellhuber won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Daniel Zellhuber wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Zellhuber at -340 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Zellhuber enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francisco Prado enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Zellhuber has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Zellhuber (52.9%).
Daniel Zellhuber has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Zellhuber

Red Corner

Francisco Prado

Blue Corner

-340

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+270

(27%)

1476

Elo

1452

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel ZellhuberL3 streak

oldest →

vs Lando Vannata · Apr 23

SUBvs Christos Giagos · Sep 23

vs Esteban Ribovics · Sep 24

vs Michael Johnson · Jul 25

KOvs King Green · Feb 26

latest

Francisco PradoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jamie Mullarkey · Feb 23

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Jul 23

vs Jake Matthews · Feb 25

vs Nikolay Veretennikov · Jul 25

DECvs Charles Radtke · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel ZellhuberMetricFrancisco Prado

5.45

Strikes / min

3.68

6.17

Strikes absorbed / min

4.31

54%

Strike defense

54%

0.14

TDs / 15 min

0.76

81%

Takedown defense

40%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.72evenly matched on net striking-0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel ZellhuberFrancisco Prado

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Zellhuber(7 fights)Francisco Prado(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.2|Blue -24.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel ZellhuberTargetFrancisco Prado

By target zone

38% acc · 73%

Head

19% acc · 33%

69% acc · 21%

Body

55% acc · 29%

100% acc · 7%

Leg

77% acc · 38%

By position

117

44% acc · 98%

Distance

36% acc · 98%

75% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Zellhuber rounds

even

Francisco Prado rounds

Round 1Francisco Prado edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:05

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 2Daniel Zellhuber edged it

Sig. strikes50

Takedowns0

Control0:00

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Daniel Zellhuber edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

120 / 272

Sig Strikes

90 / 246

44%

Sig Str %

36.3%

120 / 272

Total Strikes

91 / 249

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Francisco Prado	29 / 73	29 / 75	0 / 0
1	Daniel Zellhuber	27 / 60	27 / 60	0 / 0
2	Francisco Prado	32 / 88	33 / 89	0 / 0
2	Daniel Zellhuber	50 / 110	50 / 110	0 / 0
3	Francisco Prado	29 / 85	29 / 85	0 / 0
3	Daniel Zellhuber	43 / 102	43 / 102	0 / 0

Daniel Zellhuber

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Francisco Prado

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5