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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Zellhuber won · SUB R2

Elo1476

Elo1495

Daniel ZellhubervsChristos GiagosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Saturday, September 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Daniel Zellhuber won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:26

Style matchupDaniel Zellhuber: Pressure fightervsChristos Giagos: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Daniel Zellhuber wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Daniel Zellhuber wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Zellhuber at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Zellhuber enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Zellhuber has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Zellhuber (52.9%).
Daniel Zellhuber has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Zellhuber

Red Corner

Christos Giagos

Blue Corner

-290

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1476

Elo

1495

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

195.58 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel ZellhuberL3 streak

oldest →

vs Lando Vannata · Apr 23

vs Francisco Prado · Feb 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Sep 24

vs Michael Johnson · Jul 25

KOvs King Green · Feb 26

latest

Christos Giagos

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Soriano · May 21

KOvs Arman Tsarukyan · Sep 21

SUBvs Thiago Moises · Jun 22

KOvs Ricky Glenn · Apr 23

KOvs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel ZellhuberMetricChristos Giagos

5.45

Strikes / min

3.03

6.17

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

54%

Strike defense

50%

0.14

TDs / 15 min

2.84

81%

Takedown defense

52%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.72evenly matched on net striking-0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel ZellhuberChristos Giagos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Zellhuber(7 fights)Christos Giagos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.5|Blue +18.5

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel ZellhuberTargetChristos Giagos

By target zone

24% acc · 50%

Head

40% acc · 66%

58% acc · 31%

Body

43% acc · 8%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

83% acc · 26%

By position

35% acc · 97%

Distance

46% acc · 95%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

67% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Zellhuber rounds

even

Christos Giagos rounds

Round 1Christos Giagos edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Daniel Zellhuber edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:17

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 101

Sig Strikes

38 / 82

35.5%

Sig Str %

45%

36 / 101

Total Strikes

38 / 82

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 6

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Christos Giagos	26 / 52	26 / 52	0 / 2	0
1	Daniel Zellhuber	12 / 50	12 / 50	0 / 0	0
2	Christos Giagos	12 / 30	12 / 30	0 / 4	0
2	Daniel Zellhuber	24 / 51	24 / 51	0 / 0	1

Daniel Zellhuber

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Christos Giagos

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights14