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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Tanner Boser won · U-DEC R3
Elo1377
Elo1484
Tanner Boser

Daniel SpitzvsTanner BoserUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · Friday, October 18, 2019Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Tanner Boser won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Tanner Boser wins(63.3%)

Actual result: Tanner Boser wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tanner Boser at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tanner Boser has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Tanner Boser has 69pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Daniel Spitz has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Spitz
Red Corner
VS
Tanner Boser
Blue Corner
+125
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-145
(59%)
1377
Elo
1484
36
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'7"
Height
6'2"
208.28 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel Spitz
oldest →
L
vs Mark Godbeer · Mar 17
W
KOvs Anthony Hamilton · Sep 17
L
KOvs Walt Harris · Jun 18
latest
Tanner Boser
oldest →
W
KOvs Ovince Saint Preux · Jun 21
L
vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Sep 22
L
KOvs Ion Cutelaba · Apr 23
W
vs Aleksa Camur · Aug 23
L
KOvs Gokhan Saricam · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel SpitzMetricTanner Boser
2.60
Strikes / min
4.82
5.30
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
46%
Strike defense
57%
0.74
TDs / 15 min
0.00
0%
Takedown defense
69%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.70Δ 4.52 — meaningful gap+1.82

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1500Strikes2.6 vs 4.2Takedowns0.7 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.5 vs 0.0
Daniel SpitzTanner Boser

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Daniel Spitz(4 fights)Tanner Boser(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -107.3|Blue +107.3
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -48.3|Blue +48.3
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel SpitzTargetTanner Boser

By target zone

20
24% acc · 63%
Head
33
38% acc · 35%
6
38% acc · 19%
Body
25
93% acc · 27%
6
67% acc · 19%
Leg
35
92% acc · 38%

By position

32
30% acc · 100%
Distance
93
62% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Daniel Spitz rounds
0
even
3
Tanner Boser rounds
Round 1Tanner Boser edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Tanner Boser edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:00
35Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Tanner Boser edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:00
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
32 / 108
Sig Strikes
93 / 151
27.3%
Sig Str %
61%
32 / 108
Total Strikes
93 / 151
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Tanner Boser20 / 3420 / 340 / 00
1Daniel Spitz4 / 224 / 220 / 00
2Tanner Boser35 / 5135 / 510 / 00
2Daniel Spitz13 / 4113 / 410 / 00
3Tanner Boser38 / 6638 / 660 / 00
3Daniel Spitz15 / 4515 / 450 / 00

Daniel Spitz

StanceOrthodox
Height79.0"
Reach82.0"
Fights4

Tanner Boser

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10