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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Oluwale Bamgbose won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Elo1363

Daniel SarafianvsOluwale BamgboseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy · Sunday, February 21, 2016Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA

Official fight result

Oluwale Bamgbose won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:00

Model Prediction: Daniel Sarafian wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Oluwale Bamgbose wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Sarafian at -130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Oluwale Bamgbose enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Daniel Sarafian is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Oluwale Bamgbose has lost 75% of fights by KO.
  • Daniel Sarafian has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Oluwale Bamgbose (52.9%).
  • Oluwale Bamgbose has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Sarafian
Red Corner
VS
Oluwale Bamgbose
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
1490
Elo
1363
43
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
5'11"
185.42 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel Sarafian
oldest →
L
vs CB Dollaway · Jan 13
W
SUBvs Eddie Mendez · Jun 13
L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 13
L
SUBvs Kiichi Kunimoto · Jun 14
W
KOvs Antonio Dos Santos · Dec 14
latest
Oluwale BamgboseL4 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Uriah Hall · Aug 15
L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Apr 16
L
KOvs Paulo Costa · Jun 17
L
KOvs Alessio Di Chirico · Dec 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel SarafianMetricOluwale Bamgbose
2.23
Strikes / min
2.45
3.10
Strikes absorbed / min
2.70
58%
Strike defense
55%
0.36
TDs / 15 min
0.94
53%
Takedown defense
37%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.87evenly matched on net striking-0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1488 vs 1482Strikes18.8 vs 7.0Takedowns0.2 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.00Form0.1 vs -1.0
Daniel SarafianOluwale Bamgbose

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801488149515031510← oldermost recent →
Daniel Sarafian(6 fights)Oluwale Bamgbose(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +127.4|Blue -127.4
Recent Form
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +231.0|Blue -231.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel SarafianTargetOluwale Bamgbose

By target zone

0
Head
6
40% acc · 75%
0
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
2
50% acc · 25%

By position

0
Distance
3
23% acc · 38%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
5
71% acc · 63%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Daniel Sarafian rounds
0
even
1
Oluwale Bamgbose rounds
Round 1Oluwale Bamgbose edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:05Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
0 / 0
Sig Strikes
8 / 20
—
Sig Str %
40%
0 / 0
Total Strikes
8 / 20
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:05

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Oluwale Bamgbose8 / 208 / 200 / 00
1Daniel Sarafian0 / 00 / 00 / 00

Daniel Sarafian

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6

Oluwale Bamgbose

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights5