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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Kiichi Kunimoto won · SUB R1
Elo1490
Elo1361

Daniel SarafianvsKiichi KunimotoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov · Saturday, June 14, 2014Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Kiichi Kunimoto won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:52

Model Prediction: Kiichi Kunimoto wins(52.5%)

Actual result: Kiichi Kunimoto wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kiichi Kunimoto at +400 American odds

+$400 profit

$500 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Daniel Sarafian threatens submissions; Kiichi Kunimoto has lost 50% of fights by sub.
  • Daniel Sarafian has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Daniel Sarafian has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Sarafian
Red Corner
VS
Kiichi Kunimoto
Blue Corner
-450
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+400
(20%)
1490
Elo
1361
43
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel Sarafian
oldest →
L
vs CB Dollaway · Jan 13
W
SUBvs Eddie Mendez · Jun 13
L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 13
W
KOvs Antonio Dos Santos · Dec 14
L
KOvs Oluwale Bamgbose · Feb 16
latest
Kiichi KunimotoL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Luiz Dutra · Jan 14
W
vs Richard Walsh · Sep 14
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Feb 15
L
vs Zak Ottow · Jun 17
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel SarafianMetricKiichi Kunimoto
2.23
Strikes / min
1.87
3.10
Strikes absorbed / min
3.92
58%
Strike defense
41%
0.36
TDs / 15 min
1.59
53%
Takedown defense
28%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.87Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap-2.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1484 vs 1519Strikes22.3 vs 12.0Takedowns0.3 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.00Form-0.4 vs 1.0
Daniel SarafianKiichi Kunimoto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Daniel Sarafian(6 fights)Kiichi Kunimoto(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +129.9|Blue -129.9
Recent Form
Red -1.4|Blue +1.4
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +56.0|Blue -56.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel SarafianTargetKiichi Kunimoto

By target zone

3
75% acc · 100%
Head
1
17% acc · 20%
0
Body
0
0
Leg
4
100% acc · 80%

By position

3
75% acc · 100%
Distance
5
56% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Daniel Sarafian rounds
0
even
1
Kiichi Kunimoto rounds
Round 1Kiichi Kunimoto edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:00
5Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:51Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
3 / 4
Sig Strikes
5 / 10
75%
Sig Str %
50%
3 / 4
Total Strikes
9 / 14
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 3
—
TD %
33%
1
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
1:51

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kiichi Kunimoto5 / 109 / 141 / 31
1Daniel Sarafian3 / 43 / 40 / 01

Daniel Sarafian

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6

Kiichi Kunimoto

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights5