Middleweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Sarafian won · SUB R1

Elo1490

Daniel SarafianvsEddie MendezUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · Saturday, June 8, 2013Fortaleza, Ceara, Brazil

Official fight result

Daniel Sarafian won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:20

Model Prediction: Daniel Sarafian wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Daniel Sarafian wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Sarafian at -440 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Sarafian has 47pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Daniel Sarafian has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Sarafian

Red Corner

Eddie Mendez

Blue Corner

-440

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+390

(20%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel Sarafian

oldest →

vs CB Dollaway · Jan 13

vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 13

SUBvs Kiichi Kunimoto · Jun 14

KOvs Antonio Dos Santos · Dec 14

KOvs Oluwale Bamgbose · Feb 16

latest

Eddie MendezNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel SarafianMetricEddie Mendez

2.23

Strikes / min

1.71

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

3.43

58%

Strike defense

11%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.00

53%

Takedown defense

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87evenly matched on net striking-1.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel SarafianEddie Mendez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Sarafian(6 fights)Eddie Mendez(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel SarafianTargetEddie Mendez

By target zone

83% acc · 63%

Head

30% acc · 75%

100% acc · 38%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

89% acc · 100%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Sarafian rounds

even

Eddie Mendez rounds

Round 1Daniel Sarafian edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:06

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 9

Sig Strikes

4 / 12

88%

Sig Str %

33%

19 / 20

Total Strikes

5 / 13

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:06

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Eddie Mendez	4 / 12	5 / 13	0 / 0	0
1	Daniel Sarafian	8 / 9	19 / 20	1 / 1	1

Daniel Sarafian

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Eddie Mendez

Stance—

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights1