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Middleweight
3 Rounds
CB Dollaway won · S-DEC R3
Elo1490
Elo1491
CB Dollaway

Daniel SarafianvsCB DollawayUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping · Saturday, January 19, 2013Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

CB Dollaway won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: CB Dollaway wins(71.6%)

Actual result: CB Dollaway wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

CB Dollaway at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Daniel Sarafian is a KO finisher (50% of wins). CB Dollaway has lost 71% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Sarafian
Red Corner
VS
CB Dollaway
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1490
Elo
1491
43
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'2"
185.42 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel Sarafian
oldest →
W
SUBvs Eddie Mendez · Jun 13
L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 13
L
SUBvs Kiichi Kunimoto · Jun 14
W
KOvs Antonio Dos Santos · Dec 14
L
KOvs Oluwale Bamgbose · Feb 16
latest
CB Dollaway
oldest →
L
vs Michael Bisping · Apr 15
L
KOvs Nate Marquardt · Dec 15
W
vs Ed Herman · Jul 17
W
vs Hector Lombard · Mar 18
L
KOvs Khalid Murtazaliev · Sep 18
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel SarafianMetricCB Dollaway
2.23
Strikes / min
2.65
3.10
Strikes absorbed / min
2.58
58%
Strike defense
54%
0.36
TDs / 15 min
3.55
53%
Takedown defense
62%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.87evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1501Strikes— vs 12.8Takedowns— vs 2.1Sub Atts— vs 0.90Form0.0 vs 0.2
Daniel SarafianCB Dollaway

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Daniel Sarafian(6 fights)CB Dollaway(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red +49.1|Blue -49.1
Grappler Score
Red +49.5|Blue -49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel SarafianTargetCB Dollaway

By target zone

26
35% acc · 68%
Head
47
35% acc · 76%
12
52% acc · 32%
Body
9
75% acc · 15%
0
Leg
6
100% acc · 10%

By position

35
37% acc · 92%
Distance
43
36% acc · 69%
2
100% acc · 5%
Clinch
2
40% acc · 3%
1
100% acc · 3%
Ground
17
65% acc · 27%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Daniel Sarafian rounds
0
even
2
CB Dollaway rounds
Round 1Daniel Sarafian edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns0
Control0:12
Knockdowns1
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
0Knockdowns
Round 2CB Dollaway edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:26
41Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:16Control
Round 3CB Dollaway edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control1:19
8Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:06Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
38 / 98
Sig Strikes
62 / 152
37%
Sig Str %
36%
41 / 102
Total Strikes
73 / 164
0 / 6
TDs
2 / 6
0%
TD %
25%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
1:57
Ctrl Time
2:25

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1CB Dollaway13 / 4613 / 460 / 20
1Daniel Sarafian18 / 4418 / 440 / 00
2CB Dollaway41 / 7943 / 810 / 00
2Daniel Sarafian16 / 4216 / 420 / 50
3CB Dollaway8 / 2717 / 372 / 40
3Daniel Sarafian4 / 127 / 160 / 10

Daniel Sarafian

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6

CB Dollaway

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights14