Middleweight

3 Rounds

Daniel Sarafian won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1490

Elo1355

Daniel SarafianvsAntonio Dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dollaway · Saturday, December 20, 2014Barueri, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Daniel Sarafian won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:01

Model Prediction: Daniel Sarafian wins(57.5%)

Actual result: Daniel Sarafian wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Sarafian at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Sarafian enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Daniel Sarafian is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Antonio Dos Santos has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Daniel Sarafian has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Antonio Dos Santos has 47pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Sarafian

Red Corner

Antonio Dos Santos

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1490

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel SarafianL3 streak

oldest →

vs CB Dollaway · Jan 13

SUBvs Eddie Mendez · Jun 13

vs Cezar Ferreira · Nov 13

SUBvs Kiichi Kunimoto · Jun 14

KOvs Oluwale Bamgbose · Feb 16

latest

Antonio Dos Santos

oldest →

KOvs Scott Askham · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel SarafianMetricAntonio Dos Santos

2.23

Strikes / min

5.40

3.10

Strikes absorbed / min

3.94

58%

Strike defense

43%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.00

53%

Takedown defense

100%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.87Δ 2.33 — meaningful gap+1.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel SarafianAntonio Dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Sarafian(6 fights)Antonio Dos Santos(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +135.6|Blue -135.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -48.6|Blue +48.6

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel SarafianTargetAntonio Dos Santos

By target zone

33% acc · 46%

Head

41% acc · 62%

100% acc · 21%

Body

63% acc · 14%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

52% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 86%

Clinch

75% acc · 8%

Ground

40% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Sarafian rounds

even

Antonio Dos Santos rounds

Round 1Antonio Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:19

Knockdowns0

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:17Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 46

Sig Strikes

37 / 73

53%

Sig Str %

59.5%

24 / 46

Total Strikes

39 / 75

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

1:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Antonio Dos Santos	32 / 66	34 / 68	0 / 0
1	Daniel Sarafian	19 / 37	19 / 37	0 / 2
2	Antonio Dos Santos	5 / 7	5 / 7	0 / 0
2	Daniel Sarafian	5 / 9	5 / 9	0 / 0

Daniel Sarafian

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6

Antonio Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach—

Fights2