← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Nicolas Dalby won · U-DEC

Elo1520

Elo1508

Daniel RodriguezvsNicolas DalbyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Saturday, November 21, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Nicolas Dalby won

U-DEC

Style matchupDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fightervsNicolas Dalby: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Daniel Rodriguez wins(78.1%)

Actual result: Nicolas Dalby wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Rodriguez at -335 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Rodriguez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Daniel Rodriguez

Red Corner

Nicolas Dalby

Blue Corner

-335

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1520

Elo

1508

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Daniel RodriguezW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24

vs Alex Morono · Oct 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25

vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25

latest

Nicolas Dalby

oldest →

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 23

KOvs Gabriel Bonfim · Nov 23

vs Rinat Fakhretdinov · Jun 24

KOvs Randy Brown · Apr 25

vs Saygid Izagakhmaev · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Daniel RodriguezMetricNicolas Dalby

7.20

Strikes / min

3.88

5.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.51

57%

Strike defense

52%

0.51

TDs / 15 min

0.90

64%

Takedown defense

59%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.80Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+0.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Daniel RodriguezNicolas Dalby

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)Nicolas Dalby(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +12.2|Blue -12.2

Recent Form

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -28.0|Blue +28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Daniel RodriguezTargetNicolas Dalby

By target zone

30% acc · 53%

Head

25% acc · 48%

59% acc · 23%

Body

30% acc · 14%

91% acc · 24%

Leg

70% acc · 38%

By position

41% acc · 98%

Distance

34% acc · 100%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Daniel Rodriguez rounds

even

Nicolas Dalby rounds

Round 1Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:39

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:55Control

Round 3Daniel Rodriguez edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control0:02

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:33Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

83 / 199

Sig Strikes

50 / 147

40.3%

Sig Str %

32.7%

105 / 222

Total Strikes

58 / 155

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 7

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:41

Ctrl Time

1:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nicolas Dalby	17 / 42	17 / 42	0 / 0
1	Daniel Rodriguez	31 / 69	31 / 69	0 / 0
2	Nicolas Dalby	9 / 38	14 / 43	0 / 4
2	Daniel Rodriguez	17 / 48	33 / 65	0 / 1
3	Nicolas Dalby	24 / 67	27 / 70	0 / 3
3	Daniel Rodriguez	35 / 82	41 / 88	0 / 1

Daniel Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14

Nicolas Dalby

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights14